The Answer Key

November 6, 2009 - Absence Makes the Heart Grow Fonder

2009-11-06T18:05:00.000-08:00

Apologies to all regular readers (well, the both of you). Obviously I didnt get a post up last weekend. In my haste to get to a Halloween party, I rushed out of work before my usual posting. Suffice it to say, the gambling gods made me pay for it by delivering the greasiest cover of the season in the Iowa/Indiana game. For those who missed it, not only did the Hoosiers have a touchdown overturned in a game they were once leading 24-7, but with 1 minute remaining, and Iowa attempting to run out the clock on third down while leading by 11, the Hoosier defense collapsed and allowed a 50 yard touchdown. The final score, Iowa by 18 in a game I wagered heavily on with Indiana (+17.5). Apologies to my girlfriend for the unfriendly behavior I exhibited soon after the final whistle.

With that out of the way, let us move on to this week. Very few games excite me, so wager cautiously this week. Big numbers, and odd trends mean that you must be very selective this Saturday. As we head to the picks, let's recap Worm's performance from October 17th:

A Picks: 2 - 1 - 1
B Picks: 5 - 1
C Picks: 3 - 2
D Picks: 3 - 1

True to form, my B picks (picks I love but am just scared enough not to put max units on) were my best, along with my D picks (traditionally gut feelings). A picks were so so, while C picks were the runt of the litter, with those picks usually games that I have a gut feeling about, but that my mind says I shouldnt be touching. C ends up being the catch all traditionally, and I recommend C picks end up most often in teasers and ridiculously large $5 parlays.

*****A*****

Houston (-1.5) @ TULSA [4:30 pm PST]: Initially, I worried about a road game for the Cougars, and bettors did too. This game opened at HOU (-2.5), moved to TUL (+1.5), and is now back to the Cougs being a 1.5 fave. The reason is simple: Houston is the better team, but after a season of covers (let's all forget the UTEP game, shall we?), bettors are loathe to throw their eggs into this basket one more time. But trust the numbers here. Houston puts up nearly 200 more yards a game than Tulsa, and while the Hurricanes are riding a three game losing streak during which they have averaged fewer than 20 pts per game. Case Keenum is clicking on all cylindars, while the HOU running game has come to life. This game may be a shootout, but there is no question who will win it if it does.

Predicted Score: Houston 45, Tulsa 30
Actual Score:

Oklahoma State (-7.5) @ IOWA STATE [12:30 pm PST]: Start and end the discussion with two numbers: ISU makes its living on the ground, rushing for 200 ypg. However, OSU, despite being known for its offense, is holding it's opponents to just 99 yards a game on the ground. Factor in the return to health of RB Kendall Hunter, and the Cowboy offense and defense should share duties in dominating an Iowa State team that has scored a whopping 19 pts in its last two games,

Predicted Score: Oklahoma State 33, Iowa State 14
Actual Score:

TENN/Memphis UNDER/ 52 [4:00 pm PST]: Tennessee should win this game going away, running all over a Tiger defense that gives up 197 ypg. However, the Vol defense has continually improved all year under defensive guru Monte Kiffin. Look for Tenn to stuff the undermanned Tiger offense and win this game going away, while holding Memphis under 10 and preserving the cover.

Predicted Score: Tennessee 35, Memphis 7
Actual Score:

****B****

MINNESOTA (-7) v. Illinois: Consider the Illini thrashing of Michigan last week an aberration. On the road, they are a different ball club, and they are facing a Gopher team that has changed its identity for the better. Missing top WR Eric Decker against Mich St, QB Adam Weber was forced to find secondary and third receivers on the way to racking up 416 yards through the air with 5 touchdowns. He should maintain this momentum, while the running game gets untracked against a pourous Illini front four. QB Juice Williams offers a running threat that has confounded the Gophers in the past, but with all three linebackers amongst the top 10 tacklers in the Big Ten, look for them to focus on containing the mobile threat on route to a two touchdown win.

Predicted Score: Minnesota 34, Illinois 20
Actual Score:

MISSOURI (-14) v. Baylor [11:00 am PST]: Mostly a momentum play, Baylor has been struggling to put any points on the board since they lost their all league QB Robert Griffith. Look for the Mizzou defense to capitalize with 3 turnovers, and for QB Blaine Gabbert to turn them into points.

Predicted Score: Missouri 38, Baylor 17
Actual Score:

NOTRE DAME (-12.5) v Navy [11:30 am PST]: Once upon a time, Navy went into South Bend and ended a 43 game losing streak there. But this isn't the same ND offense they are facing this time around. All American candidate WR Michael Floyd returns for the Irish against a Navy defense whose numbers look better than what they put on the field. An option team, they control the pace of the game and keep their numbers looking respectable. But dont look for that to occur here, as the Irish will throw up top to Floyd and Golden Tate all day, while keeping the Navy running game in check as it attempts to reintroduce QB Ricky Dobbs from injury.

Predicted Score: Notre Dame 42, Navy 24
Actual Score:

Oregon (-7) @ STANFORD [12:30 pm PST]: Needless to say, Im not in love with this pick, and could move it to an A or a D. This game opened at 5, my guess is, based on speculation that Oregon would suffer a let down after the big USC win. My head and heart say that Chip Kelly won't allow a let down, and that the powerful Duck run game will wear the Cardinal out in a game that will be tight for three quarters. In the end, the Oregon speed should prove too much for the fiesty and hard hitting Cardinal.

Predicted Score: Oregon 28, Stanford 17
Actual Score:

Kent St (-3.5) @ AKRON [12:30 pm PST]: Akron is (1-7) and they can't run the football. They also can't protect the quarterback, and sit at 101st in the nation in sacks allowed. Unfortunately for them, KSU excels at rushing the passer, and should capitalize. Expect 4-6 sacks and a very frustrated Golden Eagle offense by the end of the day. It wont be pretty, but 3.5 shouldnt be enough to deter anyone from picking this tight road cover.

Predicted Score: Kent State 24, Akron 10
Actual Score:

***C***

Duke (+10) @ NORTH CAROLINA [12:30 pm]: Fla St demonstrated how to pick apart the UNC secondary, and red hot Thaddeus Lewis will be primed to do just that in this derby.

Usc (-10) @ ARIZONA STATE [5:00 pm PST]

MICHIGAN (-7) v Purdue [9:00 am PST]: They really should be able to get back on track with a team loaded with athletes against a rebuilding Boilermaker team on the road. Purdue got their big win of the year, and Michigan had their stinker. Back to normal.

Nevada (-13.5) @ SAN JOSE STATE [Nov 8th]: SJSU gives up 240 ypg on the ground, and Nevada runs for 314 ypg. This might get ugly....

**D**

PITT (-21) v Syracuse

TCU (-24.5) @ SAN DIEGO ST

October 24th, 2009 - Return of the Worm

2009-10-23T18:17:00.000-07:00

Man is not a born gambler but, from his experiences in life, he acquires a fascination for the elements of chance, and seeking to emulate his elders, he attempts to exploit these factors in pursuance of reward. It would appear that gambling in the betting sense is a thread in the pattern of social evolution – a thread that has remained unbroken since the dawn of time.
- J Philip Jones Gambling Yesterday and Toady 1973

It has been quite some time since I have graced these pages with my thoughts and ramblings. Today I feel the urge to return to the past and dispense my ideas and prognostications upon you in the hopes that we may all share a touch of success in this wonderful world of wagering. To those new to the blog, for some time I posted my thoughts and rationales behind certain wagering tips in the hopes of giving people a slight edge as they attempt to decide between Team A and Team B. You will find a selection with a letter ranking, indicating the level of faith I have in said pick, followed by a brief (usually) write up of my reasoning behind said pick, and finally a hypothesised score based on my personal comparison of the two teams and my expected outcome. This is not a science, but the selections are based on hours of observation, investigation and education. I am not a professional handicapper and these picks are for entertainment purposes only.

Of course, for those of you who have been around for the past years, welcome back. Let's start with a recap of my action so far this year. Be advised, all of my bets have been on http://www.sportsbook.com/, which I wholeheartedly endorse. If you choose to use them for your own needs, please mention me so that I may get a recommendation bonus. Also, I am happy to print out my results for anyone to audit should they not believe my modest success. That being said, success thus far is as follows:

NCAA Against the Spreaad: 38-25-2 (.615)
NCAA Money Line: 3-1 (.750)
NCAA Overs Bet: 2-4-1 (.429)
NCAA Unders Bet: 3-3 (.500)
-----------------------------------------------
Total Record 46-33-3 (.598)

NFL Total Record: 26-15 (.634)

Composite FB Record: 72-48-3 (.610)

THE PICKS:

Please note that these picks are subject to change. I may pop in during the day with notes on them, depending on how the day progresses or what kind of feeling I get. Use these as a guideline in your own betting. This week, due to a lack of time, I will not be doing a full blown analysis, only snippets. Comments are welcome.

*A* PICKS

MARSHALL (-7) v. Uab: UAB will tend to rope you in with their dual threat QB, Joe Webb. However, Marshall brings it's own offensive weapon in the eponymous Darius Marshall, RB. The grind it out style that the the Thundering Herd employs should be effective enough to keep Webb's talents off the field. And when on the field, the Herd defense demonstrates enough LB speed to turn Webb into a one trick pony. I dont see UAB's defense being able to stop the superior offense of Marshall, allowing them to beat this number fairly comfortably.

Predicted Score: Marshall 27, UAB 14
Actual Score: Marshall 27, UAB 7 [W]

DUKE (-4.5) v Maryland: This year has been unkind to Ralph Friedgen, as MD has lost to such stalwarts as William & Mary, while struggling mightly with numerous other mediocre teams. They do have a solid passing game, but not nearly the offensive firepower that Duke has. At 3-3, the Devils have been a pleasant surprise, and even more pleasant has been the performance of Duke QB Thaddeus Smith. Smith has quietly thrown for 300+ yards and 11 total TDs in his last three games, and looks to do the same this weekend.

Predicted Score: Duke 31, Maryland 23
Actual Score: Duke 17, Maryland 13 [P]

TOLEDO (-2.5) v Temple: Temple has had a resurgence, but they are without their standout freshman running back this week. Despite a decent defensive performance, the Owls will go up against QB Aaron Opelt, who returns from injury this week. Opelt is the one who torched Colorado for 56 pts early in the year, and it is highly likely that he returns with a hot hand this weekend.

Predicted Score: Toledo 28, Temple 10
Actual Score: Temple 40, Toledo 24 [L]

HOUSTON (-16.5) v. Smu: Houston is an offensive juggernaut behind Heisman candidate Case Keenum, and the offensive fireworks should continue against the hapless Mustangs. However, SMU is coached by run and shoot guru June Jones, and cannot be counted on to roll over and die on offense. Be wary of the team that almost beat Navy last week, as they have the system to do some damage. However, Houston is the pick here since their weakness is on the ground - an area of the field SMU ignores on a regular basis. 450 yards for Keenum and three picks for the defense in a blowout.

Predicted Score: Houston 42, SMU 21
Actual Score: Houston 38, SMU 15 [W]

*B* PICKS

SYRACUSE (-10.5) v Akron: Greg Paulus will throw all over Akron, as the Zips have no one to cover top notch wideout Mike Williams.

Predicted Score: Syracuse 35, Akron 14
Actual Score: Syracuse 28, Akron 14 [W]

MIAMI (FL) (-4.5) v Clemson: Smart money likes Clemson, as this game opened at (-7). However, the deciding factor will be QB in this game, and Jacory Harris will make sure the Canes get the last laugh.

Predicted Score: Miami 24, Clemson 17
Actual Score: Clemson 40, Miami 37 OT [L]

Ohio/Kent St UNDER 47 [W]

Penn State (-4.5) @ MICHIGAN: This game makes me a tad nervous, but PSU's defense is too strong for a young Michigan team that is still trying to find it's way. Look for the Wolverines to shuttle their young Qbs in and out, looking for something that works.

Predicted Score: Penn State 28, Michigan 7
Actual Score: Penn State 35, Michigan 10 [W]

Iowa (+1.5) @ MICH STATE: MSU is the trendy pick here, but Iowa just keeps getting it done as an underdog. Keep riding them until they prove they cant handle it.

Predicted Score: Iowa 17, Mich St 14
Actual Score: Iowa 15, Michigan St 13 [W]

Tcu (-2.5) @ BYU: When a game is this close, take the stronger defense. TCU can move the ball just enough to give them the points they will need to overcome the Cougars, who are looking for revenge after the Horns busted their BCS bubble just last year.

Predicted Score: TCU 23, BYU 17
Actual Score: TCU 38, BYU 7 [W]

*C* PICKS

OHIO (-10) v Kent St [L]

Ok St (-9.5) @ Baylor: Baylor QB Robert Griffin is still out, and despite the injuries to Ok St, they have much more depth to absorb the losses. The Cowboy way wins out over the undermanned Bears. [W]

Indiana (+4.5) @ NORTHWESTERN [W]

Auburn (+8) @ LSU [L]

Tennessee (+16) @ ALABAMA: Look for Monte Kiffin to come up with a way to shut down the Bama passing game. Mark Ingram is a fine RB for the Tide, but he wont be enough to cover this number. As always, factor in the total ineptitude of Jonathan Crompton when making this
pick. [W]

*D* PICKS

Uconn (+7) @ WEST VIRGINIA: This is a 10 point game, but the emotion the Husky players will be feeling should push it within the 7 [W]

UTAH ST (-1) v La Tech: A hunch. They gotta win a close one one of these days. [W]

Arizona St (+6.5) @ STANFORD [L]

PITT (-6.5) v South Florida: Im not excited about this pick [W]

Podcast!

2006-10-04T00:42:00.000-07:00

Wormpix has gone big time. Get all of your picks and random idiocy at Wormcast. Click on the link below to be transferred...and tell your friends!

WORMCAST

September 16, 2006

2006-09-15T16:13:00.000-07:00

Last Week: 5-8

Total Record: 13-13-1

Rough week, and made all the more rough by the fact that I came up. Unfortunately, I can only provide picks ahead of time. You must contact me for real time thoughts. This week, that would ahve worked out, as I made a lot of money on Notre Dame second half, Ohio State second half, and a Rice/Oregon parlay. Throw in big money on Pitt and then West Virginia last night, and there was a winning week that went under the radar. With that said, this week's picks!

*****A*****

Texas (-33) v. Rice: Texas is of course coming off of a major loss, and will be anxious to prove that they belong amongst the elite. They can run the ball effectively, and have a stingy defense that will be working with two weeks of game film to better understand the new spread offense that has been installed at Rice. Colt McCoy will be on a tighter leash as the Longhorns will run often, and both Sedrick Irvin and Jamaal Charles should top the century mark. Look for key second half turnovers to make this a laugher.

Predicted Score: Texas 51, Rice 3

Actual Score:

Texas Tech (-1.5) @ TCU: Amazingly, and I can attest to this as a Dallas denizen, this is the premier matchup in the Southwest this week. Texas Tech is anxious to show that they are for real, and TCU is looking for respect. However, as both Robert Merrill and Lonta Hobbs are, well, hobbled, TCU's running game has stalled. If Texas Tech can zero in on the underrated Jeff Ballard and control the TCU passing game, their own explosive attack should give them a sizeable advantage.

Predicted Score: Texas Tech 35, TCU 21

Actual Score:

Hawaii (-12) v UNLV: Traveling to Hawaii is always a problem, and it should be more so for a team with limited resources like UNLV. Quarterback Colt Brennan is the best passer you have never heard of. He should go for 400 and 4 scores and the Warriors roll.

Predicted Score: Hawaii 42, UNLV 17

Actual Score:

****B****

Boise St (-7.5) @ Wyoming: I am usually a victim of falling in love with a team based on their previous week's performance. This time, I believe I am warranted. Granted, Wyoming played tough in a hostile environment in Virginia, but that is a below average Cavalier team. Boise throttled a similar Oregon State team, and despite the fact it was accomplished on the Smurf Turf, I see no reason RB Ian Johnson won't see similar running lanes against the Cowboys. Wyoming will come out pumped early, but if they bring up their safeties to stop the run game, QB Jared Zabransky will make them pay.

Predicted Score: Boise St 35, Wyoming 24

Actual Score:

Miami (+4) @ Louisville: Hi, Im Louisville, and I am your trendy BCS pick. Forget it. Many will declare the Cardinals' running game fit after dropping 320 and 7 scores on Temple, but not so fast my friend. This is Miami we are talking about, and they are to defense what G Dubya is to malapropisms. They can't hold the Ville down completely, but they should be able to play enough defense to make this game a close one. Look for Kyle Wright to find more room to throw the ball and show off his improved passing skills. Upset city, baby.

Predicted Score: Miami 23, Louisville 20

Actual Score:

Nevada (-2) v. Colorado State: They had a tough time getting untracked last week, but the Pack should have no problems at home against an average Col St squad. This should be a fairly close game, but in even matchups, home field is worth three, making -2 a gift.

Predicted Score: Nevada 34, Col State 28

Actual Score:

***C***

Iowa St (+13) @ Iowa: Really an obvious pick, which makes it a potentially bad one. Will Drew Tate be back? Yes. But his top wideout, Charles Davis is out for the year. I love RB Albert Young, and the Iowa defense is always amongst the best. However, this is an Iowa State team with a good offense, a track record of hanging with the Hawkeyes, and too many points under its belt to ignore. They prob wont win this game, but there is little change they lose by two touchdowns.

Predicted Score: Iowa 31, Iowa State 21

Actual Score:

Florida (-3.5) @ Tennessee: Tennessee, you fickle creature. My current girlfriend doesn't have me this vexed, and I couldn't tell you her next move if she submitted it in writing. After crushing a very talented Cal squad, they laid the proverbial egg against Air Force. How I missed that obvious let down/look ahead game is beyond me. The bottom line is that Urban Meyer is a great offensive coach, and QB Chris Leak appears to get his offense. If they can continue to operate as efficiently as they have so far, they should out score Tennessee considerably, while a very good defense, lead by LB Brandon Siler helps QB Erik Ainge revert to his old ways. Pressure, pressure, and more pressure should help Florida swing momentum in their favor. And they will not be influenced by the Neyland Stadium faithful.

Predicted Score: Florida 28, Tennessee 21

Actual Score:

Auburn (-3.5) v. LSU: Looks even on paper, doesn't it? But Auburn does all the things it takes to beat LSU. This is as good, if not better, a team as the undefeated squad that was denied a shot at the national title. Kenny Irons went for 22o on the ground last year in this matchup, and this time, they are at home. Auburn's big receivers should make the tough catches to make Brandon Cox look good, while the Auburn defense, coming off of a shutout, should hold the limited LSU running game in check.

Predicted Score: Auburn 24, LSU 14

Actual Score:

**D**

Ohio St (-29) v Cincy:

Predicted Score:

Actual Score:

Michigan (+6) @ Notre Dame:

Predicted Score:

Actual Score:

Nebraska (+17.5) @ USC:

Predicted Score:

Actual Score:

Syracuse (+3) @ Illinois:

Predicted Score:

Actual Score:

September 9th, 2006

2006-09-08T16:57:00.000-07:00

Decent opening week. 8-5-1. Huge mistake on Cal, just didnt realize that Cutcliff would make that big a difference. And Tenn exposed Cal as a team that may not be as fast as people thought. Tenn brough Olympic speed to the field and ran around Cal all day. Add in the 100K people that I forgot to factor in, and well, you get a major blunder. Also did you all wrong by not making Indiana my lock of the week, as they were that by game time. They will be the team to follow again this week. On to the picks:

*****A*****

Missouri/Mississippi OVER 47: I can hear readers out there saying it already..."Huh?" Mississippi, even with a defensive minded coach, boasts two excellent transfers on offense (QB Brent Shaeffer from Tenn and former Hoosier BenJarvus Green-Ellis at RB) that should be able to put up 20+ pts on the Mizzou D. The key is Missouri's excellent offense and the improved play of QB Chase Daniels. At home, they should run up a cool 35 against a defense that gave up 25 to a subpar Memphis squad, and the two should combine for at least 50. Miss (-8) wasn't the worst play, but that number has since moved to (-10)

Predicted Score: Missouri 35, Mississippi 27

Actual Score: Missouri 34, Mississippi 7 [L]

Indiana (-3.5) @ Ball St: Im not looking past Ball State, I just think that people are not respecting the improved Indiana offense, and the early lines are soft. This game should be at least (-7.5) and it would be a sin not to play it. The Hoosier passing game is very good, and WR James Hardy is a Marcus Robinson-type who should dominate the Ball State secondary. For a MAC team, but the Cardinals will struggle with Big Ten calibur talent like most of their fellow league members.

Predicted Score: Indiana 30, Ball State 21

Actual Score: Indiana 24, Ball State 23 [L]

Georgia (-3) @ South Carolina: I really think that this line is so low because of how tough So Car played them last year. I just don't see it happening again. Mark Richt is an excellent coach, as can be seen by what happened to the Fla St offense after his departure. He boasts a very strong three headed running game that should dominate a defense that looked soft against a freshman running back for Miss State. QB Joe Tershansky is shaky, but his freshman backup just may come in and make some noise. QB Blake Mitchell is hobbled for So Carolina, who should have a hard time moving the ball against a defense that is athletically superior.

Predicted Score: Georgia 24, South Carolina 10

Actual Score: Georgia 18, South Carolina 0 [W]

Oregon (-3) @ Fresno State: My favorite game. After making a mint on Nevada to cover at Fresno, I love the Ducks to run ramshod over an overrated Bulldog squad. Despite a strong defense and a very good running game, the new Fresno QB is worse than below average, and will have trouble finding space against a good Oregon secondary. The key will be the improved play of QB David Dixon for the Ducks (70% completions against Stanford) and the monster running game led by RB James Stewart. Hammer this game....

Predicted Score: Oregon 35, Fresno State 17

Actual Score: Oregon 31, Fresno State 24 [W]

****B****

Auburn (-20.5) @ Miss State: Some will think this is too much to give on the road. I love the Auburn offense, and I see no indication that new QB Tray Rutledge can get the Bulldogs past midfield against the superior Tiger defense. After a 6-15 effort against South Carolina, I find it hard to believe MSU will complete even a single pass. Look for Auburn to dominate this game, and move the ball however they want.

Predicted Score: Auburn 42, Miss State 3

Actual Score: Auburn 34, Miss State 0 [W]

***C***

Illinois/Rutgers OVER 50: Call it a hunch. Two good offenses, two bad defenses. The Ron Zook recruits are starting to play, and the young passing game should be able to put some late points up for the cheap cover.

Predicted Score: Rutgers 38, Illinois 24

Actual Score: Rutgers 33, Illinois 0 [L]

Tennesse (-20) v Air Force: Fine, Im a believer. David Cutcliff was the missing ingredient. Tenn has great talent, but couldnt get together on offense. If Erik Ainge is going to be consistent, they should trounce mid level teams consistently. Air Force will be nervous in Neyland Stadium, where it is doubtful their running game can do better than Cal's, which boasted prehaps the nation's best runner.

Predicted Score: Tennessee 42, Air Force 14

Actual Score: Tennessee 31, Air Force 30 [L]

**D**

Clemson (-2.5) @ BC: After last week, I refuse to trust BC. Clemson has a very good team, and if Will Proctor plays smart, they should cover this game. BC could win outright, but the Clemson defense should be the difference.

Predicted Score: Clemson 31, BC 23

Actual Score: BC 32, Clemson 31 [L]

Penn State (+7.5) @ Notre Dame: Should really buy this up to the original 8.5. This pick has nothing to do with ND's performance at G Tech, and has everything to do with Penn State being completely underrated. Great defense, pursuing line backers, and superior speed on offense should keep them in this game. If QB Anthony Morelli can play to his abilities (and I think he will) they might even pull the upset.

Predicted Score: Penn State 31, Notre Dame 30

Actual Score: Notred Dame 42, Penn State 17 [L]

Minnesota (+8) @ Cal: I believe. Watch as the Gopher front line pushes the overmatched Cal defensive line around. A three headed monster at running back should keep the Bears occupied while QB Bryan Cupito finds his rhythm, throwing to big receivers matched up against small corners. Cal will score at will, but the Gophers may pull an upset in this track meet.

Predicted Score: Cal 44, Minnesota 38

Actual Score: Cal 42, Minnesota 17 [L]

Ohio State (+2) @ Texas: Id love to go on and on as to why I like this game, but I can't think of exactly why. Everything says Texas to me, but in the end, the difference between Troy Smith and Colt McCoy should dictate the score. Despite 9 new starters on defense, the Buckeyes should be competitive. Meanwhile, there is just too much speed on Ohio State's side of the ball to allow the Texas defense to control the game. Look for freshman RB Chris Wells to make a difference for Ohio State, while WR Limas Sweed may be enough to save Colt McCoy from a horrible game. Throwing against No Texas is one thing....he should struggle here as the pressure from the home crowd mounts.

Predicted Score: Ohio State 28, Texas 21

Actual Score: Ohio State 24, Texas 7 [W]

*LEAN*

No Ill (-16) v Ohio: At home, with Garrett Wolfe at RB, and I see the Huskies controlling this matchup against a below average Ohio squad.

Predicted Score: No Ill 35, Ohio 16
[L]

Actual Score:

Michigan State (-25.5) v Eastern Michigan: They are due to cover one of these. This should be the week. Paging Drew Stanton.....

Predicted Score: Mich State 50, East Mich 7
[W]

Actual Score:

Games of September 2-3, 2006

2006-08-31T18:57:00.000-07:00

Guess who's back? Back again! Yes, your friendly neighborhood handicapper, The Consigliari, is back with is full service set of picks and analysis as the 2006-07 College Football Season kicks off! Early in the season, I won't attempt to break down each game with any form of analysis, as it is too early to make a pick based on a legitimate basis. All I can do is look for soft lines, and recognize teams that return more talent than people realize (or less....Im talking to you, Texas offense) and try and take advantage of those games. So there will be little or no analysis for the first three weeks. As always, you can email me and get my thoughts on any game on the board (even those not chosen). On to the first picks of the season!

*****A*****

California (-2) @ Tennessee: No one realizes how good Cal is on both sides of the football. Especially dangerous is their secondary, which should give the inconsistent Ainge fits. Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett are both 1500 yard rushers in any scheme.

Predicted Score: Cal 28, Tennessee 14

Actual Score: Tennessee 35, Cal 18 [L]

USC (-8) @ Arkansas: Yes it is on the road, and yes this is an SEC team hosting a depleted group of Trojans. In two years, Arkansas should be solid, but right now, they are still struggling. USC is loaded with talent, and the question is just who will be the next big star for the Trojans. Remember, no one knew anything about Matt Leinart when he first started a game.

Predicted Score: USC 27, Arkansas 10

Actual Score: USC 50, Arkansas 14 [W]

Rutgers (+5) @ North Carolina: Rice and Leonard. The rest is just "smoke filled, coffee house crap."

Predicted Score: Rutgers 35, UNC 28

Actual Score: Rutgers 21, UNC 16 [W]

****B****

Hawaii (+16) @ Alabama: Remember Ty Detmer? Meet Colt Brennen.

Predicted Score: Hawaii 38, Alabama 35

Actual Score Alabama 24, Hawaii 17 [W]

***C***

Oregon (-12) v. Stanford

Predicted Score: Oregon 31, Stanford 14

Actual Score: Oregon 48, Stanford 10 [W]

Penn State (-17) v. Akron

Predicted Score: Penn State 41, Akron 7

Actual Score: Penn State 34, Akron 16 [W]

North Texas (+41) @ Texas

Predicted Score: Texas 35, North Texas 3

Actual Score: Texas 56, North Texas 7 [L]

Mississippi (-3) v. Memphis

Predicted Score: Mississippi 14, Memphis 0

Actual Score: Mississippi 28, Memphis 25 [push]

**D**

Wake Forest (-14) v Syracuse

Predicted Score: Wake Forest 24, Syracuse 9

Actual Score: Wake Forest 20, Syracuse 10 [L]

Auburn (-14.5) v Washington State

Predicted Score: Auburn 45, Wash State 10

Actual Score: Auburn 40, Wash State 14 [W]

Indiana (-6.5) v. West Michigan

Predicted Score: Indiana 38, W Michigan 21

Actual Score: Indiana 39, W Michigan 20 [W]

*LEAN*

Utah (+3) @ Ucla

Predicted Score: Utah 28, UCLA 21

Actual Score: UCLA 31, Utah 10 [L]

Arizona (-7) v BYU

Predicted Score: Arizona 21, BYU 10

Actual Score: Arizona 16, BYU 13 [L]

West Virginia (-22) v Marshall

Predicted Score: West Virginia 44, Marshall 14

Actual Score: West Virginia 42, Marshall 10 [W]

November 12, 2005

2005-11-11T12:16:00.000-08:00

Last week....eh. I am absolutely at a loss in regards to the Boston College and Michigan State losses. Both games were the victims of significant point shaving, though the writing was on the wall for the Mich St game. That is my own fault. UCLA meanwhile, everyone who didn't see that as a trap game took a beating. Here is my thing though...how is that a trap game? They just played a close game, and the game they should be looking forward to was two weeks away. So, they shouldn't have been looking ahead. If anything, they got out coached, out schemed, and out performed. Stoops is just a better coach who exploited the Bruins, an inevitability I should have seen. That is my fault. It is also my fault that I switched off of Utah, and that I played BYU in my own bets but didnt include them here. Again, what was I thinking. All that being said, here are the bare bone picks, with analysis hopefully to come later:

11/5 Record: 11-9 (.550)

Record to Date: 111-90-4 (.561)

11/5 A Picks: 2-2 (.500)

A Picks to Date: 22-11 (.667)

*****A Picks

Western Michigan (-3) v Central Michigan:

Predicted Score: W Mich 37, C Mich 28
Actual Score:

Vanderbilt (-11) v. Kentucky:

Predicted Score: Vanderbilt 35, Kentucky 21
Actual Score:

Hawaii (-16.5) v. Utah State:

Predicted Score: Hawaii 42, Utah St 14
Actual Score:

Tulsa (-9.5) v. East Carolina:

Predicted Score: Tulsa 34, ECU 21
Actual Score:

Eastern Michigan (-6) v. Ball State:

Predicted Score: EMU 31, BSU 21
Actual Score:

South Florida (-8) @ Syracuse:

Predicted Score: South Florida 30, Syracuse 14
Actual Score:

Tulane (+1) @ Rice:

Predicted Score: Tulane 28, Rice 21
Actual Score:

Georgia Tech (+3.5) @ Virginia:

Predicted Score: Georgia Tech 24, Virginia 21
Actual Score:

Idaho (+9) v. Louisiana Tech:

Predicted Score: La Tech 31, Idaho 24
Actual Score:

****B Picks

Miami (Fla) (-17) @ Wake Forest:

Predicted Score: Miami 34, Wake Forest 14
Actual Score:

Iowa State (+2) v. Colorado:

Predicted Score: Iowa St 28, Colorado 27
Actual Score:

Oregon (-4.5) @ Washington State:

Predicted Score: Oregon 37, Washington St 28
Actual Score:

Memphis (+19) @ Tennessee:

Predicted Score: Tennessee 24, Memphis 10
Actual Score:

Alabama (+3) v. LSU:

Predicted Score: Alabama 14, LSU 10
Actual Score:

***C Picks

Central Florida (+7.5) @ UAB:

Predicted Score: UAB 37, UCF 34
Actual Score:

Boston College (-4.5) v. North Carolina State:

Predicted Score: Boston College 24, NC State 17
Actual Score:

UConn (+12) @ Pittsburgh:

Predicted Score: UConn 24, Pitt 21
Actual Score:

Navy (+23.5) @ Notre Dame:

Predicted Score: Notre Dame 37, Navy 21
Actual Score:

Texas A&M (+13) @ Oklahoma:

Predicted Score: Oklahoma 31, Tex A&M 24
Actual Score:

Auburn (+3) @ Georgia:

Predicted Score: Auburn 24, Georgia 21
Actual Score:

Texas Tech (-23.5) @ Oklahoma State:

Predicted Score: Texas Tech 45, Ok State 21
Actual Score:

------------------------------------------------
OVER/UNDERS

Vanderbilt/Kentucky O/52.5

Oregon/Washington State O/62.5

Wisconsin/Iowa O/54

Georgia/Auburn O/41

UAB/Central Florida O/55

UCLA/Arizona State O/71

November 5, 2005

2005-11-03T12:07:00.000-08:00

Last week, I was in a terrible rush. But I managed to get most picks out there. The problem was that I changed a few at the last minute. However, the changes were to low level picks, that I could see going either way on. My biggest mistake was that I put two games in the A level that I had slight doubts about . The truth is that one B pick (Cincy) and one C pick (Mich) were A picks on paper, but I didnt have the nerve to put them in the A column. That was my mistake. That being said, Tulane blew game they were leading by 14 in the last few minutes, and TCU was covering with 3 minutes left until they let SDSU drive on them for no apparent reason. I was dumbfounded to say the least. Let's hope this week is stronger. This week I have done a full analysis which determines the total expected yardage and expected score based on yearly performance. Games that appear to go in one direction may actually go in another when fully analyzing their statistics. The key numbers are mentioned in the write ups:

10/22 Record: 13-9 (.591)
10/29 Record: 9-10-1 (.500)

Record to Date: 100-81-4 (.562)

10/22 A picks: 4-1 (.800)
10-29 A picks: 4-2 (.667)

A picks to Date: 20-9 (.690)

*****A PICKS*****

Boston College (-5) @ North Carolina - 9:00 am: This game should not be very close, despite BC's having to play on the road. UNC offers a less than hospitable environment, however, they will stil find it tough to run against a dominant BC run defense that was exploited by Virginia Tech only because of their inability to contain Marcus Vick, a problem they won't face this week. UNC has trouble scoring for the most part, and will continue to struggle this week, amassing a mere 264 yards of total offense. The key will be BC's ability to throw the ball against a poor secondary.

Predicted Score: Boston College 26, North Carolina 18
Actual Score: UNC 16, BC 14 [L]

Western Michigan (-3) @ Eastern Michigan - 12 noon: This will be a close game, and the number is pretty much right on. WM struggles on defense, and will likely allow EM to stepup their passing game significantly. However, WM will see a significant increase in their run game, and will pull out a victory by about a touchdown.

Predicted Score: West Mich 31, East Mich 24
Actual Score: West Mich 44, East Mich 36 [W]

Penn State (-11) v. Wisconsin - 1230 pm: I think this is my favorite game. All numbers and feelings point to Penn State continuing to perform at an above average rate. Wisconsin's defense is highly overrated, while their running game, while effective, has been as good as it should be, and no better. Against PSU, they will find the running lanes few and far between. Some say the loss of Derrick Williams will be a major blow, but not when you consider that he has only run for 105 yards, and caught 289 yards worth of passes - losses of 15 and 19 ypg respectively.

Predicted Score: Penn State 37, Wisconsin 21
Actual Score: Penn State 35, Wisconsin 14 [W]

UCLA (-9.5) @ Arizona - 3:00 pm: UCLA had their close game, and won. This should lead to a charge through Arizona as they prepare to meet USC. UCLA's biggest weakness is against the run, but Arizona has struggled all year to do anything by throw the ball. Meanwhile, UCLA has been very effective against the pass. Even on the road, I like the Bruins to score in the 40's en route to a convincing victory.

Predicted Score: UCLA 42, Arizona 21
Actual Score: Arizona 52, UCLA 14 [L]

****B PICKS****

South Florida (+3) @ Rutgers - 9:00 am: This game is essentially dead even. The numbers all match up, leaving the (-3) explained only by home field advantage. Rutgers is a touchdown short this game, due to a 40 yard loss in rushing, while USF will find slightly more passing room as their backs run up 220 yards on the ground.

Predicted Score: Rutgers 25, South Florida 23
Actual Score: South Florida 45, Rutgers 31 [W]

Michigan State (-5) @ Purdue - 9:00 am: Statistically, this should be a blow out. Look for the Spartans to roll up almost 600 yards of total offense, while keeping Purdue in check for the most part. QB Stanton should flourish against a poor Boilermaker secondary, while an underrated ground game controls the clock.

Predicted Score: Michigan State 43, Purdue 32
Actual Score: Purdue 28, Mich St 21 [L]

Arkansas (-4) v. South Carolina - 9:30 am: Considering SC just beat Tenn, this pick must come as a shock. Then again, Ark is favored..and rightfully so. While SC will be able to throw the ball, they may seldom have it as Ark runs for over 310 yards against a weak SC run defense. Arkansas is hardly a scoring machine, but neither is So Car. I see them controlling the clock, and taking advantage of their home field.

Predicted Score: Arkansas 24, South Carolina 17
Actual Score: South Carolina 14, Arkansas 10 [L]

Nebraska (-1.5) @ Kansas - 12 noon: This is very close to an A pick. Neb's defense looks poised to dominate the very weak Kan offense, holding them to 260 yards or less. However, Kansas has a fantastic defense too, and should keep Nebraska under 300 yards themselves. The difference will be the Neb passing game of all things, which should chew up some yards against Kansas' one weakness, which is it's secondary. If Neb can throw for more than 230 yards ,they should win by a touchdown.

Predicted Score: Nebraska 21, Kansas 14
Actual Score: Kansas 40, Nebraska 16 [L]

Army (+11) @ Air Force: This pick should come as a shock. Army is not a very good team, but AF has been so inconsistent, it hardly seems right to expect AF to beat anyone by 11. Army has a decent defense, and should keep AF under their normal 250 yards rushing each game. Meanwhile, I expect Army to find room in the air of all places. Both teams should put up about 350 total yards, which is 50 more than average for Army, and 50 less for AF. The Falcons should still win, but it will be a tight game.

Predicted Score: Air Force 28, Army 21
Actual Score: Army 27, Air Force 24 [W]

Central Florida (+2.5) v. Houston - 3:00 pm: Originally, I leaned Houston, mostly because I always do. However, UCF has an underrted offense, and plays immensly better at home. Houston has a great offense, but an average defense. I look for both teams to perform above average offensively, and will also play the over here. Look for a close game, won outright by the home dogs.

Predicted Score: Central Florida 34, Houston 28
Actual Score: CFla 31, Houston 29 [W]

Washington State (+2.5) v Arizona State - 2:00 pm: ASU seems to struggle on the road, while Wazzu and their high powered offense play especially well at home. Both teams should put up 540 yards of offense, but the key will be Wazzu's 260 yards on the ground against ASU's weak run defense. ASU shoud have no problem throwing the ball, but nothing more effective than what they usually put up. Definately play the over here.

Predicted Score: Washington State 45, Arizona State 42
Actual Score: Arizona State 27, Washington State 24 [L]

***C PICKS***

Iowa (-2) @ Northwestern - 9:00 am: NW is a trendy pick, but the numbers say otherwise. The weak NW defense is doomed to give up an extra 70 yards to a potent Iowa offense that has been rolling along (save for last week's loss to a good Michigan defense). Meanwhile, Iowa should manage to keep NW under 500 yards on offense, while taking advantage of superior special teams.

Predicted Score: Iowa 35, Northwestern 32
Actual Score: NW 28, Iowa 27 [L]

Georgia Tech (-8) v. Wake Forest - 12:30 pm: Wake has been solid all season, relying on a very potent running game. However, they go against a staunch G Tech defense which should hold the Deacons in check, while the GT offense takes advantage of a somewhat poor WF pass defense. Look for Reggie Ball to have an excellent day while the Tech defense holds Wake in check without their top QB.

Predicted Score: Georgia Tech 28, Wake Forest 14
Actual Score: GTech 30, Wake Forest 17 [W]

Bowling Green (-11.5) @ Kent St - 11:00 am: I keep telling myself I won't play Bowling Green games, but here I am again. They are so due to break out, I would hate to miss the train when it left the station. All stats point to a 15 pt victory this weekend for old BG. Not only will they see an increase in their offensive performance, but their underrated defense should keep Kent under 300 yards (totally nullifying an already terrible rushing attack). [**NOTE: QB Omar Jacobs did not play for BG, unbeknownst to me at time of writing.]

Predicted Score: Bowling Green 42, Kent State 24
Actual Score: Bowling Green 24, Kent 14 [L]

Tennessee (+9) @ Notre Dame - 11:35 am: This is a headscratched, especially considering how bad Tenn played last week. However, that game should be chalked up to the dominance of Phil Fullmer by Steve Spurrier, and not to Tenn's weaknesses. They are exceptional on defense, and they have a very underrated passing game that should exploit the weak ND pass defense. ND will win, but 9 is too many points. [**NOTE: If I had known Qb Erik Ainge was playing, I never would have taken TN]

Predicted Score: Notre Dame 28, Tennessee 21
Actual Score: Notre Dame 41, Tennessee 21 [L]

Iowa State (-8) v. Kansas State - 11:00 am: 8 is a tough number to give here, but I find K St to be much more effective at home, rather than on the road. ISU's offense is starting to hum along after dropping 42 on Tex A&M. Meanwhile, K St has shown a deficiency in its run game of late, and ISU should exploit that. Neither team should find much success on the ground, but QB Brett Meyer should be the diffence as ISU is learning to use their offensive weapons properly.

Predicted Score: Iowa State 37, Kansas State 24
Actual Score: Iowa State 45, Kansas St 17 [W]

Miami (FL) (+6.5) @ Virginia Tech - 350pm: Blacksburg is not a fun place to play, but this Miami defense isnt afraid of anything. This will be a low scoring game, and everything will depend on the play of Kyle Wright, who is turnover prone, and was awufl in a victory over UNC last week. Marcus Vick has been very efficient, but goes against a pass defense allowing only 123 yards a game.

Predicted Score: Virginia Tech 19, Miami FL 14
Actual Score: Miami 27, V Tech 7 [W]

TCU (-7) v. Colorado State - 4:00 pm: I admit that 7 is alot, and I am hesitant to give it, but CSU struggles against the run, and should give the Horned Frogs plenty of running room. TCU should have covered on the road last week, and despite CSU's 310 yards passing they are destined to get, it will be TCU's 230 yards on the ground that bring them victory. Even with an effective passing game, CSU will still fall short of their usual offensive output.

Predicted Score: TCU 35, Colorado St 24
Actual Score: TCU 33, Col St 6 [W]

**D PICKS**

Navy (-12.5) v. Tulane- 12:30 pm: I was really leaning Tulane in this game, until I remembered...they're Tulane! 12.5 is a big number, but it amounts to a two touchdown victory, which isnt out of the question for a Navy team averaging 263 yards on the ground. Tulane is strong against the pass, but Navy should carve them up for 300 yards on the ground. Meanwhile, Tulane has no rushing attack, and Navy's strength is against Tulane's only weapon - the passing game. Lester Ricard has been shuffled in and out of the lineup, demonstrating how inconsistent he is. I see him struggling against an solid Navy pass defense, while the Midshipmen run and run and run their way to an easy win.

Predicted Score: Navy 35, Tulane 21
Actual Score: Navy 49, Tulane 21 [W]

Wyoming (+2.5) @ Utah - 12 noon: Originally, I figured Utah was hte pick here. However, Wyo is destined for an extra 30 yards of offense, while holding Utah to 50 less total yards. Wyo's passing game is a strength, and one that they can use to exploit Utah. On the road, they may struggle some, but I wouldn't be surprised if they won outright. Even if they don't, this will be a very close game.

Predicted Score: Utah 28, Wyoming 27
Actual Score: Utah 43, Wyoming 13 [L]

Ohio State (-34) v. Illinois - 1235 pm: Ohio State just looks so dominant in this game. Even if the backups come in, this is Ohio State, and the backups would be starters on Illinois. While OSU will put up 460 yards of offense (+75) they should hold Illinois to 100 yards under their average. This is a blow out, and should be over by half time.

Predicted Score: Ohio St 52, Illinois 10
Actual Score: Ohio State 40, Illinois 2 [W]

October 29, 2005

2005-10-28T12:40:00.000-07:00

*****A*****
Kansas St (+7.5) v Colorado: KSU getting 7.5 at home seems like a gift, after they gave A&M all they could handle last week. KSY has a strong run and pass defense, against comparable offensive stats by Col. However, Col, while adept against the run (85, +85%) is inedpt against the pass (253, -10%). KSU's young QB is getting better each week, and should be able to exploit the Buffs. Perhaps the Cats won't win this game, but they have a strong enough defense, and a balanced offense, sufficient to keep this game under 7.

Predicted Score: Colorado 28, Kansas St 24
Actual Score:

Rutgers (-6.5) v. Navy

BYU (-6.5) v Air Force: A favorite of mine. AF has demonstrated what a disaster they are against a potent offense. Through the air, AF gives up 265 ypg (-13%) while BYU is throwing for 317 ypg, which looks even better with a +25% var rtg. And though some point to the explosive AF running game (251, +36%), BYU's strength is stopping the run (130 +23%). I look for BYU to dare AF to throw the ball, and for them to fail miserably, while QB John Beck picks apart the AF secondary.

Predicted Score: BYU 42, Air Force 28
Actual Score:

TCU (-7) @ San Diego St:

Texas Tech (-11.5) @ Baylor:

Tulane (-1) v. Marshall:

****B****

New Mexico (-6) v. Colorado St: CSU has a dynamic offense, and should put up a decent amount of points. However, NM recently shut down Wyoming on the road, and CSU is 0-3 on the road, meaning they won't be nearly as explosive as in past games. The key to this game is RB Dontrell Moore for NM, who will help the Lobos control the clock. NM averages 211 ypg on the ground (28%) while CSU allows 198 (-9%). The passing yardage should even out, while NM wins the battle on the ground, and wins this by a TD.

Predicted Score: 35-28
Actual Score:

Cincinatti (+5) @ Syracuse: I have really struggled with this game, but all signs point to Cincy pulling a slight upset. Cuse has been horrible this season, road or home. And though CIN is not a strong team, the numbers indicate they have the offense to be competitive. They average 151 ypg rushing, while Cuse allows 169 (-9%). Meanwhile, Cuse can't run (116, -19%) or pass (138, -33%), meaning the average Bearcat defense will not be tested. Look for Cincy to grind out a close victory, or at least cover.

Predicted Score: Cincinatti 21, Syracuse 17
Actual Score:

Nebraska (-1.5) v Oklahoma: All of the "experts" are going with OK, but not me. The numbers indicate that this game will be a tight one, maybe even an overtime affair. Both teams dominate in stopping the run, though OK has a much better rush offense (155, +12%) However, Nebraska brings a strong run d (107, +39%), which will be able to focus on the Sooner run game due to OK's anemic pass offense (160, -26%). Meanwhile, the difference maker will be Nebraska's ability to throw the ball (215, +2%) against a Sooner defense allowing 223 ypg in the air. I like the Huskers to win a squeaker.

Predicted Score: Nebraska 23, Oklahoma 20
Actual Score:

Alabama (-34) v Utah St: Like any game with a blow out line, the key will be how much damage the starters can do before the reserves come in. However, I beleive at a school like Bama, the reserves will be very talented and hungry to prove themselves. In an undefeated season, the reserves see little action. This means that when they get a shot, they will play like starters against a team like Utah St. Bama can throw and run (225 +9%, 150 +12%) while Utah St can not do either (173 -39%, 95 -44%). Utah St can stop the run a little, but they are horrible against the pass. Brodie Croyle should have 4-5 TDs passing when he leaves in the third, en route to a high scoring affair.

Predicted Score: Alabama 52, Utah St 7
Actual Score:

Iowa State (+10) @ Texas A&M: 10 seems like an awful lot for two teams that match up well on paper. A&M is great offensively (P 236 +6%, R 238 +42%) but ISU has some things going in its favor. They play the run very well (108, +41%) while A&M struggles to stop the pass (298, -29%). I think the underrated Cyclone passing game (221 +5%) will exploit the A&M secondary enough to keep them in this game to the very end, though I imagine it will be the running of QB Reggie McNeal that confounds ISU most of the day. 10 is still too many points.

Predicted Score: Texas A&M 31, Iowa St 28
Actual Score:

Bowling Green (-14.5) v Akron:

Troy (+3) @ UL Lafayette:

***C***

Ohio (-4) @ Buffalo: This game worries me. Early in the week, I was all over Ohio, but the power rating on this game is only (-2), while many are predicting a tight game. If anything, play the under here. It's sure to be around 35 total points. As for the game, the key stat is Ohio's running game (185 +1%) against the anemic Buffalo run defense (214, -28%). Ohio can't stop the pass at all, but lucky for them Buffalo can't throw the ball (153, -34%). Then again, they can't run it either (100, -51%). If Ohio can run the ball, and control the clock, they should win by a touchdown. However, if their awful passing game is shut down by the strong Buffalo pass defense (123 -77% v 150 +43%) then Buffalo can go 9 in the box and stuff Ohio. I think the Bearcats will be battle tested after beating Pitt and pull this out.

Predicted Score: Ohio 17, Buffalo 10
Actual Score:

Central Florida (+2.5) @ East Carolina: Another game I went back and forth on. East Carolina can certainly throw the ball, but so can CFL. Neither team defends the pass too well, meaning the game will turn on the CF running game (139 -10%) getting well against an atrocious ECU rush defense (225 -20%). ECY meanwhile cannot run the ball (106 -43%) while CFL plays fantastic run defense (132 +21%). I look for CFL to be able to sit back in a zone and control the game knowing ECU cant move the ball on the ground, then win with a balanced attack.

Predicted Score: Central Fla 35, East Carolina 27
Actual Score:

Florida State (-17) v. Maryland: Normally I don't play MD games, but this week, their QB S Hollenbech is likely to sit. If he does, look for FSU to dominate the otherwise weak Terripins. While FSU's passing game will be tested by a strong MD pass d (155, -14%), I look for FSU to finally get a running game going against a run d allowing 186 ypg. MD's biggest strength anywhere is throwing the ball, but FSU is tough against the pass, and will dominate even more with Hollenbech out. FSU in a romp.

Predicted Score: Florida St 37, Maryland 14
Actual Score:

UTEP (-20) @ Rice: I don't really want to play this game, but Rice is so horrible, I have to. Rice can run the ball, mind you (203 +15%) however, UTEP's strength is against the run (138 +15%). Meanwhile, Rice can not do anything through the air (-107%), while UTEP's 280 ypg passing (+19%) will do well against a Rice defense allowing 241 ypg on their own. RB Tyler Ebell should also get well against a Rice defense allowing 222 ypg on the ground. For a team like Rice, being at home has no advantage.

Predicted Score: UTEP 48, Rice 21
Actual Score:

Northern Illinois (-28) v Ball State:

Kansas (+5.5) v Missouri:

Mississippi St (pk) @ Kentucky:

**D**

Wake Forest (-14) @ Duke: I have been vacillating on this game all week. I like Duke, but I just think they may be a horse short. They have a great pass defense, and Wake loses their starting QB, who has turned the season around. However, Wake can run the ball, and Duke can't stop the run. A steady diet of Chris Barclay should make this a game that will have you sweating until the final buzzer.

Predicted Score: Wake Forest 28, Duke 13
Actual Score:

North Carolina St (-6.5) v Southern Miss: Again, I can't decide. The running games match up perfectly, and I see nothing happening on the ground from either team. However, they can both throw the ball. The difference is that So Miss can't stop the pass (269, -6%), while NC St can (188, +8%). I look for QB Jay Davis to throw for 300 in this game, and lead NC St to a 7 pt victory.

Predicted Score: NC ST 37, So Miss 30
Actual Score:

Michigan (-3) @ Northwestern:

October 22, 2005

2005-10-20T21:09:00.000-07:00

Ouch, ouch, ouch. 11-18 last week. 11 wins, 18 bad losses. Some excusable, most, just way off. I tried to interject more analysis, this time studying offensive and defensive units, trying to determine exploitable weaknesses. Well, the only weakness was me. This week, I have added a new factor. In analyzing team defenses and offenses, I was only looking at the numbers, and ignoring what those number meant. Even though a team may give up 200 passing yards per game, the question is: Against who? If the 5 teams they have played average 250 passing yards per game, then that is a solid defense. But if the 5 teams average 150, the passing defense is worse than expected. Therefore, included in the analysis are Variable Ratings. These ratings will tell you whether a defensive unit is over performing or undre performing. A positive variable rating means that the unit is even better than the numbers indicate, while a negative variable rating indicates the unit is even worse than you would think. EXAMPLE: Maryland averages 158 rushing yards per game, but has a (.44) rating. This means that they are averaging 44% fewer yards than they should. Conversely, Virginia Tech gives up 103 rushing yards per game, but has a .72 rating, meaning that they allow 72% fewer yards than they should on average. This would indicate that in a matchup, Va Tech's defense should dominate Maryland's rushing game even more than the numbers indicate. On to the picks!

Last Week: 11-18 (38%)

Year to Date: 78-62-3 (56.7%)

Last Week's A PICKS: 3-2 (60%)

Year to Date A PICKS: 12-6 (67%)

*****A PICKS******

Northern Illinois (-10.5) @ Kent St: Northern Illinois has a strong offense, but their strong passing def will be the difference here, limiting Kent State's excellent passing game. The UNI passing game [273 ypg (.10)] and the rushing game [228 ypg (.25)] will test the weak Kent St defense [230 rush ypg (-.22); 236 pass ypg] . Kent St throws for 288 (.14) ypg, however, UNI allows only 206 with a (.28) variance. This will be a tough game on the road, but the Huskies should have the offensive firepower to pull away late.

Predicted Score: No Illinois 45, Kent St 31
Actual Score:

Houston (+2) @ Mississippi State: My favorite game, as the stats point to a decisive Houston victory. Of course, taking road dogs is never fun, but I like what I see in this matchup. The MSU offense is very weak, but the Cougar offense looks potent enough to overtake a scrappy MSU defense. Houston averages 188 rypg (.25) and 285 pypg (.23), which should be enough to challenge the MSU rush def [124 ypg(.23)] and weak pass def [230 ypg (.05)]. Houston does give up 407 total ypg, but MSU only averages 273, and will be hard pressed to score enough to keep up.

Predicted Score: Houston 28, MSU 17
Actual Score:

Tulsa (-15.5) v SMU: I love this game too. Tulsa at home, against an up and down SMU team, should roll. Tulsa averages 393 tot ypg while SMU allows 416 ypg. Tulsa can run the ball (163) and throw (230) and should have no problem against a Mustang defense that can defend against neither (155, 261). The key stat is the SMU passing off [182 ypg (-.14)] against the very strong Tulsa pass def [139 ypg (.20)]. Tulsa should get up early, and have the passing defense to keep SMU from getting close.

Predicted Score: Tulsa 45, SMU 14
Actual Score:

Fresno St (-28.5) @ Idaho: Even on the road, it is likely that Fresno will roll once again. Idaho's stats are anemic, most notably a rushing off averaging 60 ypg (-1.40). On the other side, Fresno's defense is strong against both the pass and the run [(.33) and (.19)], while their run game [169 ypg (.15)] should exploit a weak Vandal run defense [172 ypg (-.22)].

Predicted Score: Fresno St 49, Idaho 14
Actual Score

Texas (-17) v. Texas Tech: This game opened at -15, and I still like it. The Longhorns are so strong in every facet, they can afford to divert attention to the Tech passing game, and abandon trying to stop what is actually a very weak run game [101 ypg (-.01)]. The variable indicates that the Raiders are only as strong as the defense they face, and in this case, its a run def allowing 92 ypg with a variance of (1.04), which shows that Texas is not only strong against the run, but they have been shutting down very good offenses. Meanwhile, Tex averages 264 yards on the ground (.47). The big issue is Tech's passing game [472 ypg (.52)] which is just a monster, but the Longhorns have a very solid pass def, enough to force Cody Hodges into too many mistakes [147 ypg (.20)]. And those pass def numbers are from games that have been blowouts, with opponents chucking it late. I like the Longhorns to keep blowing out big numbers, and end the talk of Tex Tech becoming a real player.

Predicted Score: Texas 48, Texas Tech 21
Actual Score:

****B PICKS****

Pittsburgh (-13) v. Syracuse: The Orange are terrible, and Pittsburgh has quietly gotten on a nice run, dominating Cincinnati then South Florida. At home, they should score at will against a struggling Cuse defense. The Orange will fail to move the ball in the air, though they may hamper the Pitt passing game slightly. The Cuse passing offense averages 147 ypg (-.32) vs. the Pitt pass defense giving up 164 ypg (.24)

Predicted Score: Pittsburgh 35, Syracuse, 7
Actual Score:

Air Force (PK) v. TCU: If ever there was a pick em, this is it. TCU is tough, but on the road, they should have a difficult time keeping up with a Falcon offense that is on a roll. In addition, the Frogs will likely be without QB Tye Gunn, leaving them without a key offensive weapon. TCU has a strong run game [161 ypg (.13)] but Air Force has an equally tough run def [135 ypg (.15)]. Air Force meanwhile rushes for 252 ypg (.35), which should test a very good TCU rush def [119 ypg (.15)]. The weak Air Force passing game may limit them, but being at home should push them over the edge.

Predicted Score: Air Force 38, TCU 35
Actual Score:

Tennessee (+4) @ Alabama: This game is dead even, in every sense of the word. Tennessee is not spectacular, but they grind out win after win. Meanwhile, Alabama is coming off of a poor 13-10 victory over Ole Miss, that showed they arent as explosive without top receiving threat Tyrone Prothro. Both rush defenses are excellent, with Alabama's performing much better statistically [163 ypg (.11) v. 98 ypg (-.07)], but both defenses have been extremely tough [TN 93 ypg (.53) v. Bama 93 ypg (.44)] . I imagine this game will finish well under the number, and come down to a field goal, meaning a +4 will come in handy at game's end.

Predicted Score: Alabama 16, Tennessee 13
Actual Score:

Miami (OH) (-10.5) @ Eastern Michigan: The running games should be the difference here. Mia averages 156 ypg (.08) against EMUs defense of 228 ypg (-.24), while the Mia rush def is giving up 141 yards, but faces a weak EMU run game averaging 101 ypg (-.62). EMU can throw the ball a little, and Mia can't stop it all that well, but against an anemic run game, they should be able to lay back in the soft zone. 10.5 does in fact seem like a little too many points, but the Hawks should just barely cover against an overachieving EMU squad.

Predicted Score: Miami 48, East Michigan 24
Actual Score:

Toledo (-30) v. Buffalo: Home game, and a strong running game to make up for the very strong Buffalo pass defense [156 ypg (.49)]. Toledo averages 221 on the ground (.17) and goes against Buffalo's run def giving up 201 per game (-.29). The key is that Buffalo can not move the ball offensively, averaging 97 and 139 yards per game rushing and passing respectively. The Rockets will run the ball right down the throats of the Bulls.

Predicted Score: Toledo 42, Buffalo 7
Actual Score:

Boise State (-18.5) @ Utah St: Utah State stinks, plain and simple. They average 97 yards on the ground (-.48) and 166 through the air (-.39), meaning that they will struggle mightily against a Boise St defense with var ratings of (.07) and (.10). The key is Boise's 220 rushing ypg (.30) against Utah St's 148 ypg rush def (-.15). The Broncos will run the ball and run the ball and run the ball, until Utah St is ground into the turf.

Predicted Score: Boise State 45, Utah State 14
Actual Score:

Navy (-7) @ Rice: I don't like picking Navy on the road, but Rice seems to get worse and worse each week. Navy struggles with everyone they play, playing many close games. On the road, this may be a 3 point game, but I think they can run the ball well enough to give the Owls fits. Navy averages 267 ypg on the ground (.34) while Rice allows 206 per game (-.20). The difference should be enough to allow Navy to hold the ball, and keep the Rice running game off the field [206 ypg (.17)]. The key is that Rice cannot throw the ball [86 ypg (-.96)] allowing Navy to play 8 in the box all day.

Predicted Score: Navy 35, Rice 14
Actual Score:

***C***

Michgan St (-12.5) v Northwestern: The key stat is MSU's passing off at 318 (.26) v NW's passing def at 319 (-.23). Drew Stanton, the highest rated passer in the nation, should throw at will on the Cats, forcing them to abandon their running game [215 ypg, (.30)] MSU's rush defense is also at 122 ypg, and should bottle up the Cats early on. The only problem is that NW can throw the ball [300+ ypg], and may score late to cover.

Predicted Score: Michigan State 45, Northwestern 30
Actual Score:

Michigan (+2.5) @ Iowa: This game is a real tough call. Iowa has great momentum, and has won 22 in a row at home. However, the stats point to a Michigan resurgence, especially following a hard fought win over a very good Penn St team. MI throws for 225 ypg, while Iowa gives up 238 per game in the air. Iowa has a strong run game [182 ypg (.12)] and an average passing game that should be better [226 ypg (-.12)], yet they go against a Michigan defense that is much better than the stats indicate, with variable ratings of (.32) and (.37) for the rush and pass defenses respectively. I expect the Hawkeyes to struggle running the ball, with Chad Henne to have a resurgence.

Predicted Score: Michigan 23, Iowa 20
Actual Score:

Florida State (-30) @ Duke: I really want to take Duke here, but Im going to treat this game the way I treated the Miami game last week. Florida State is coming off of a very tough loss, and will look to make a statement. Poor Duke will just get caught in the way. Duke does have a great pass def [182 ypg (.17)] but FSU has a spectacular passing game [328 ypg (.38)] as well as an excellent run def [93 (.68)] which should keep Duke under 150 total yards. The Duke passing game is non existant [90 ypg (-1.01)]

Predicted Score: Florida State 49, Duke 14
Actual Score:

Nebraska (PK) @ Missouri: Mizzou has been tough lately, but Nebraska has quietly had an excellent season, lead by a spectacular defense. Missouri has great offensive numbers, with 235 passing ypg (.35) and 240 rushing ypg (.15), but they will be hard pressed to match those totals against the Nebraska defense, allowing 224 passing (.14) and 65 rushing (1.05). The key stat is Nebraska's 204 passing ypg against Missouri's passing defense [219 ypg (-.14)]

Predicted Score: Nebraska 27, Missouri 21
Actual Score:

Rutgers (-3.5) @ Uconn: I loved this game when I first saw it, but I have slowly learned to hate it. Statistically, UConn is extremely tough, but they showed how little that matters without an experienced quarterback, losing to a pathetic Cincinnati team. UConn has a very good running game [237 ypg (.36)], but the Rutgers run defense is equally tough [116 ypg (.23)]. And while UConn stops the pass very well [129 ypg (.35)], Rutgers has thrown the ball very well against good passing defenses [237 ypg (.22)]. Last week, UConn lost their back up, a freshman, and are now stuck auditioning third stringers. This should be enough to cost them an otherwise even matchup.

Predicted Score: Rutgers 20, UConn 10
Actual Score:

Oregon State (+9.5) @ UCLA: Don't get me wrong, I love the Bruins and their offense. However, their defense has been a major disappointment, almost costing them a game at Washington State, and threatening to make this week's game against Oregon State a tight one. The Beavers have struggled all season, but they have some surprising numbers. Of course, their passing game [321 ypg (.25)] is very good, and will test a Bruin passing def that looks good on paper, but isn't that spectacular in comparison to the passing games it has faced [187 ypg (.04)]. Couple that with QB Matt Moore coming back to LA after transferring. The key stat is OSUs excellent rush def [112 ypg (.81)] whose variable rating shows that they are even better than the numbers indicate, which should give the very good Bruin run game trouble. OSU's biggest weakness is against the pass, so it will be up to Drew Olson to pull the game out.

Predicted Score: UCLA 31, Oregon State 28
Actual Score:

Penn State (-18) @ Illinois: I didn't want to include this game after the number moved to 18, but I had to. The numbers indicate that the Nittany Lions are at least 28 points better than the Illini, and I have to think a three touchdown victory is doable. PSU averages 203 yards on the ground (.32), and goes against a rush def giving up 227 ypg (-.23). PSU should also be able to throw against a defense allowing 230 ypg. The key stat is that while Illinois averages 150 yards on the ground (.11), the Lions allow 101 per game, with a variable rating of (.96). If the Lions can prevent the Illini from making up those lost yards in the air, they should roll. I believe they have way too much speed for the rebuilding Illini.

Predicted Score: Penn State 38, Illinois 10
Actual Score:

Oregon (-10.5) @ Arizona: The Cats gave USC a nice run, then lost at home to Stanford, hardly awe inspiring. Arizona has a terrible offense, even though the passing game has slowly been improving. The run game has a (-.57) variable rating, while Oregon's run def has a (.58). Once the Ducks shut down the running game, they can sit back and keep Zona from moving the ball through the air as well. Meanwhile, Oregon throws for 338 ypg, which should challenge a good zona passing def [192 ypg (.34)]. However, they allow 199 rushing yards per game, and RB T Whitehead should find some room to keep everyone honest.

Predicted Score: Oregon 35, Arizona 14
Actual Score:

Auburn (+6) @ LSU: Dead even, as far as I can tell. Both teams are very good defensively, with LSU's run defense being the most impressive [69 ypg (.86)]. However, Auburn's Brandon Cox is improving weekly, and may have made the leap when he lead Auburn to 28 second half points in a tight game at Arkansas last week. Meanwhile, the Auburn defense has been strong, allowing 116 (.26) and 151 (.21) on the ground and in the air. The travel is tough for those visiting LSU, so if the Tigers are tired, this could be a tough one to cover. I think they manage just fine.

Predicted Score: Auburn 21, LSU 20
Actual Score:

Arizona St (-10) @ Stanford: ASU has struggled as of late, and was whitewashed at home by Oregon. Meanwhile, Stanford has a two game winning streak, and looks like a team finding its groove. Which means, forget everything you know, and assume the slumping team will blow out the streakers. ASU has a fantastic offense that will run it up on the Cardinal while Stanford's inability to move the ball will help ASU make up for their otherwise very weak defense [463 ypg]. If Stanford plays perfectly, like in Wash St, then they will keep this game close. But after dominating Oregon St in Corvallis, I think the Sun Devils can pull the same trick this weekend in Palo Alto.

Predicted Score: Arizona State 42, Stanford 31
Actual Score:

October 15, 2005

2005-10-13T19:46:00.000-07:00

It's amazing what a little time and analysis can do for a record. After consecutive weeks of .500 level picks, this past weekend was a return to normalcy. A 9-5 finish for A-B-C picks is a solid performance, especially considering that Wake Forest covered the Florida State pick with a TD with 20 seconds left, and Texas Tech won by 3 while giving 4 . Getting those two games back would have produced a spectacular week, but we will take 9-5.

Obviously, the most disheartening performance came from Washington State, who absolutely turned into a pumpkin for no reason what so ever, allowing a dismal Stanford team to beat them in their own house. However, a late Navy rally made up for that awful game and left a sweet taste in the mouths of many loyal readers.

This week will be a tough one, and even the top tier picks don't feel as strong as week's past. However, we trudge along and offer these selections for your review:

Last Week: 9-5 (.643)

Year-to-Date: 67-44-3 (.614)

**A**

Bowling Green (-23) @ Buffalo: BG started off horribly, blowing games to Wisconsin and Boise St. Lately, however, they have been scoring points in bunches, including 70 at Temple. Buffalo on the other hand has scored 31 pts in 5 games, all losses. The problems for BG will be a terrible run defense, though it likely wont be tested by Buffalo, and Buffalo's pass defense, coming in allowing 150 ypg. Look for Omar Jacobs to test that defense, but mostly for PJ Pope to run wild and control the clock.

Predicted Score: Bowling Green 45, Buffalo, 14
Actual Score: Bowling Green 27, Buffalo 7 (L)

Air Force (-13.5) v. UNLV: Admittedly, this line is a tad high. AF has been trying to find their identity, and despite losing, they showed they can be an explosive passing offense against Navy. This will come in handy against an awful UNLV pass defense, that is nonetheless 9th in the nation against the run. AF's biggest weakness is its lack of a pass rush (only 5 sacks) but that shouldnt be a problem against a Rebels team starting a freshman backup who has had little success thus far.

Predicted Score: Air Force 31, UNLV 14
Actual Score: Air Force 42, UNLV 7 (W)

UConn (-7.5) @ Cincinnati: This number feels like it should be higher. UConn is no. 1 in the nation in total defense, and has the 9th best rushing attack. Cincy meanwhile has struggled to score points all season (19 ppg), and brings the 80th ranked defense into the game. Uconn starts a rookie QB with little passing ability. However, his devotion to running the ball will keep him from making the mistakes that can cost a heavy favorite. UConn will control the game and limit the Bearcats to under 10 pts.

Predicted Score: UConn 28, Cincy 7
Actual Score: Cincy 28, UConn 17 (L)

Nevada (-1.5) v La Tech: This game features two high powered passing attacks. Nevada has taken awhile to get thier offense in order, but the last two games have shown signs that the Wolfpack have got things together. La Tech's lambasting of Hawaii is overrated, as the Warriors were dogged by long travel. This will be a high scoring affair, and even a 3 pt win will cover this, so take the home team.

Predicted Score: Nevada 48, La Tech 40
Actual Score: Nevada 37, La Tech 27 (W)

Hawaii (-20) v New Mexico St: Speaking of Hawaii......talk about Jekell and Hyde. On the road, they are putrid, but at home they are the 99 Rams. The have a superb passing game and will exploit the long travel hours all visitors must log. NMS is an awful team, despite their improving offense. They are coming off a 30 point loss at home, and will struggle to keep Hawaii under 50.

Predicted Score: Hawaii 52, NM St 24
Actual Score: Hawaii 49, NM St 28 (W)

**B**

Alabama (-13.5) @ Mississippi: This one looked like a trap at the open, but a more detailed look reveals that Alabama is for real, and likely to take advantage of Ole Miss. So far, the tightest game for the Tide has been with Arkansas, who boasts the 4th best rushing attack in the nation. Against a team like Ole Miss, with the 98th best offense in the nation, the 6th ranked Tide defense will strangle the Rebels. Bama's passing game is hurting with the loss of Tyrone Prothro, but the remaining wide outs are big and fast, and Brodie Croyle will be quite efficient with the 36th best running game taking the pressue off of him

Predicted Score: Alabama 31, Mississippi 10
Actual Score: Alabama 13, Mississippi 10 (L)

Colorado (+17) @ Texas: TX is a juggernaut, no doubt. However, last week's crushing of Oklahoma is not indicative of the kind of result you should expect from all of their games. Admittedly, COL isnt the bastion of consistency you would hope for in an upset candidate, however, they bring a balanced attack to Austin that should be strong enough to cover such a large number. Texas is balanced, with the 11th best offense and 5th best defense. However, their strength is running the ball, and the COL rush defense is 6th in the nation. Factor in the 25th best offense in the nation, and COL should be able to move the ball enough (especially through the air) to keep this close.

Predicted Score: Texas 28, Colorado 17
Actual Score: Texas 42, Colorado 17 (L)

Louisville (-7) @ West Virginia: Tough number, I agree. A touchdown is alot to give when travelling to WV. However, this is not the same WV team that has been tough on their opponents all year. Three key injuries (NT, CB, and RB J Gwaltney) will weaken the 'neers, meaning the 9th ranked WV defense will be significantly hampered, as will their 14th ranked rushing offense. WV is not very effective againt the pass, which is the L'ville bread and butter. The Cards have the 13th ranked rush D, in addition to a strong pass rush lead by DE E Dumerville and his 15 sacks. Look for the Cards to hold the limited WV offense in check long enough to rack up two late touchdowns to pull away.

Predicted Score: Louisville 35, West Virginia 24
Actual Score: West Virginia 46, Louisville 44 (L)

Miami (FLA) (-41) @ Temple: Middle of the season, and I am recommending giving 41! I must be high, because this is a college hoops line, but I still feel like they can cover. The bottom line is that Miami will pitch a shut out. If they dont, they likely wont cover. But with the release of Bobby Wallace as coach of the Owls, its likely this team will mail it in, and against Miami, that will be a disaster. The Canes are trying to hone their passing game, and will look at this game like a passing league game. I doubt Temple crosses the 50.

Predicted Score: Miami 45, Temple 0
Actual Score: Miami 34, Temple 3 (L)

SMU (-2) v East Carolina: I like this game for mostly superficial reasons. ECU is a team that struggles on the road, while SMU is coming off of a win at UAB (not easy) and has a home victory over TCU under its belt. They are an average team, but are no more flawed than ECU. The Pirates have an exceptional passing game (258 ypg), while SMU has a poor secondary. It seems like the recipe for disaster, but I look for SMU to be opportunistic and force ECU's young offense into mistakes.

Predicted Score: SMU 27, East Carolina 21
Actual Score: ECU 24, SMU 17 (L)

Texas Tech (-15) v Kansas St: Would it surprise you to know that Texas Tech has the 20th ranked total defense? Mind you, it has been again mostly cupcakes, but it is indicative of the fast, opportunistic defense the Red Raiders have (5th in turnover margin). Many will point to the 9th ranked KSU passing def, but that has been against Marshall, North Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. I expect Hodges to pick them apart while the defense forces KSU's freshman QB into numerous mistakes.

Predicted Score: Texas Tech 42, Kansas St 14
Actual Score: Texas Tech 59, Kansas St 20 (W)

LSU (-6) v Florida: The Gators are a MASH unit, to say the least. They are starting former QBs and d-backs at receiver these days, and still squeaking by. Not against LSU. The Tigers may struggle against the pass, but Fla has no running game, allowing for an entire night of nickel defense. They may let the Gators get small yardage underneath, but Fla will be lucky to top 350 yards of total offense. Meanwhile, JaMarcus Russell and the LSU running game have both been getting fat lately as the Tigers have been getting used to the new offense. I expect they won't explode against Florida's 8th ranked defense, but they should be good for 28 pts.

Predicted Score: LSU 28, Florida 17
Actual Score: LSU 21, Florida 17 (L)

USC (-12) @ Notre Dame: THE game of the week, and I predict it will hardly be a game. Alot of experts will have you believe that ND will control the clock with the running game, but with a top back averaging 4.6 ypc, they hardly bring an explosive ground game to the table. Meanwhile, USC boasts the top running game as well as the 4th best passing attack. The Irish won't know whether to stay home or double up deep. The Irish may be able to throw the ball, but USC has been bend don't break in the department, and will likely keep the Irish offense off the field with a steady diet of Bush and White.

Predicted Score: USC 45, Notre Dame 28
Actual Score: USC 34, Notre Dame 31 (L)

UAB (-3) @ Marshall: There is one key issue in this game that should scare the Marshall fan, and that is that Marshall has been turnover prone all season, and now match up with a team ranked 5th in the nation in turnover margin. UAB struggled to score in a loss to SMU, but still managed to throw for over 300 yards. They will continue to move the ball against Marshall, and will fix the glitch that is keeping them out of the end zone.

Predicted Score: UAB 31, Marshal 21
Actual Score: Marshall 20, UAB 19 (L)

Florida State (-7) @ Virginia: Last week was, in a word, a debacle The 7th ranked FSU rushing defense struggled as Wake Forest ran for 247 total yards. This game is about how FSU will react. My guess is that against a Cav team missing its top two lineman (injury and suspension) the FSU front 7 will push into the backfield all game. FSU ranks 10th in passing offense, and will likely pass all day, while keeping VA off balance with draws and screens all day.

Predicted Score: Florida State 34, Virginia 14
Actual Score: Virginia 26, Florida St 21 (L)

**C**

Penn State (+3) @ Michigan: Perhaps Im drinking the kool aid, but I just see too many indications that PSU is the better team in this game, road game or not. They bring the 21st rush offense against the 66th rush defense. In addition, Michigan is 49th in total offense, against a team with the 10th ranked rush defense. PSU's LBs are tremendous, and on offense, they have too much speed for the Michigan defense to dig in. I see them continuing to keep teams off balance with the many different looks they provide. I rank this game low because if Chad Henne figures it out, and can get an explosive performance out of his receivers, the Wolverines could score 35, much like NW was good for 29 against PSU. However, this is a game decided by momentum, and Penn State is running downhill in that department. Look for almost nothing out of Mike Hart this weekend.

Predicted Score: PSU 35, Michigan 28
Actual Score: Michigan 27, Penn St 25 (W)

Cal (-16) v. Oregon State: Im not ecstatic about this game, but I do like it. Cal actually lost to UCLA by 1 (save for a cheap late TD - thank you gambling gods), and managed to score 40 points nonetheless. Their offense is cruising, and its high time their defense get back on track. They are strong against the run, and have good cover guys in the secondary. Except for poor special teams play, they probably would have beaten the Bruins in LA. Now they are back home playing against the 115th defense in the nation. Cal has three healthy RBs this week, each averaging 8.7, 6.1, and 11.9 yards per carry. They are explosive at all times, with the personnel to be well rested. When one wears down, they go to a different weapon. Meanwhile, Oregon St is averaging 349 ypg passing, but QB M Moore has only 7 tds vs 7 ints. Hardly enough to make one worry about the passing game.

Predicted Score: Cal 38, Oregon State 21
Actual Score: Oregon State 23, Cal 20 (L)

Tulsa (-7.5) @ Rice: When Tulsa comes into Houston against an option team giving up 195 rypg, I worry a tad. But this is also a Rice team giving up 507 ypg on defense, and 50 pts a week. Tulsa has had big offensive games, and will likely score into the 40s at least this weekend. Their defense may be pushed around by the Rice running game, but once they get up three touchdowns, the Owls will be forced to abandon their strength. Big rout here.

Predicted Score: Tulsa 45, Rice 21
Actual Score: Tulsa 41, Rice 21 (W)

--HEAVY LEANS--
[Leans will be considered recommendations this week, and will go into the yearly record. I like these games alot, but not enough to rank them above anything else. Email me or leave a comment if you would like further explanation for any of these games, and I will provide it.]

South Florida (+1) @ Pittsburgh - Pitt 31-17 (L)

Wake Forest (+14) @ Boston College - BC 35-30 (W)

Rutgers (+2) @ Syracuse - Rutgers 31-9 (W)

Indiana (+14.5) @ Iowa - Iowa 38-21 (L)

Michigan State (+6.5) @ Ohio State - Ohio St 35-24 (L)

Colorado State (-2) @ BYU - BYU 24-14 (L)

New Mexico (+7) @ Wyoming - NM 27-24 (W)

Washington (+16) @ Oregon - Oregon 45-21 (L)

Baylor (+2.5) v Nebraska - Nebraska 23-14 (L)

Washington State (+5) v UCLA - UCLA 44-41 (W)

Stanford (+4.5) @ Arizona - Stanford 20-16 (W)

October 8, 2005

2005-10-06T16:26:00.000-07:00

Last week was another average week, with A-C finishing at 8-9. The D picks were "lean" picks, only designed to get you thinking in one direction or another. They obviously were awful leans, but they were based on no research.

Last Week: 8-9 (.471)

Year to Date: 58-39-3 (.610)

This week, I have done my research, and actually feel good about most picks. Here are your picks for the weekend with spreads based on sportsbook.com, which is where I make my plays . I can say that I will play all picks listed:

**A**

Louisville (-13) v. North Carolina: At home, Louisville is dominating. They had their problems at So Fla, but lost that game due to miscues and special teams play. One of those fluke games that is not very indicative of this team's talent. They are 7th in the nation in offense, going against a UNC secondary giving up 237 yards per game passing. UNC meanwhile will have trouble keeping Elvis Dumerville off of their QB.

Predicted Score: Louisville 45, UNC 21
Actual Score: Louisville 69, UNC 14 (W)

Washington St (-14) v. Stanford: Washington State puts up 340 yard per game passing, going against Stanford's 115th ranked passing defense. What makes that more pathetic is that Stanford has managed to have such a poor passing defense against the likes of Navy and UC Davis. Wazzu has an explosive offense, and should have little trouble keeping a Stanford offense in check, as the Cardinal still have battles at every major position.

Predicted Score: Washington State 42, Stanford 17
Actual Score: Stanford 27, Washington St 24 (L)

Arkansas (-26.5) v. UL-Monroe: ULM can't move the ball, and they have played mostly Sun Belt opponents, managint 327 ypg of offense. Meanwhile, ULM has a 101st ranked rush defense going against Arkansas' 4th ranked rushing offense (278 ypg). This is a must win, and the 'Backs must make a statement.

Predicted Score: Arkansas 48, ULM 14
Actual Score: Arkansas 44, ULM 15 (W)

Navy (-1) . Air Force: Navy has been up and down, and certainly not as dominant as in the past to years. However, AF has demonstrated that they do not have the horses to compete with even average teams. AF's QB is a very good talent, but Navy at home will have the extra juice that only a rivalry can bring. Navy has a strong running game, and will control this game from beginning to end.

Predicted Score: Navy 24, Air Force 20
Actual Score: Navy 27, Air Force 24 (W)

**B**

Boston College (-7) v. Virginia: BC boasts a potent running game led by what may be the best O-line in the nation. After giving up 300 yards to Maryland last week, they should have alot of trouble stopping the Eagles in Boston. The biggest issue is the health of QB Quentin Porter for BC, but VA has bigger injury issues, namely LB Ahmad Brooks.

Predicted Score: Boston College 35, Virginia 20
Actual Score: Boston College 28, Virginia 17 (W)

Maryland (-28) @ Temple: Very simply put, Temple is awful. They have done nothing to lessen the impression that they are one of the worst teams in Div I. They gave up 70 to an inconsistent Bowling Green team last week, and should have trouble with a Terps team that has been running downhill over people lately.

Predicted Score: Maryland 38, Temple 3
Actual Score: Maryland 38, Temple 7 (W)

West Virginia (-4) @ Rutgers: After watching Rutgers dominate Pitt last week, the immediate reaction is to jump on the Scarlet bandwagon. However, a closer look at the numbers reveals a very strong West Virginia team. No. 8 in total def, WB is giving up 145 passing ypg. Meanwhile, Rutgers is 109th in passing def, and benefitted from the absolute confusion in the Pitt passing game last year.

Predicted Score: West Virginia 31, Rutgers 17
Actual Score: West Virginia 27, Rutgers 14 (W)

Oklahoma (+14) @ Texas: The diciest game on the board, there is something forbidden about giving two touchdowns in a rivalry game of this level OK had trouble with TCU and UCLA, yes, but as a young team, it takes time to find your groove. Dropping 42 on KSt will go along way towards providing the Sooners with confidence. Take the points and the emotion as long as A Peterson will play, as he is currently probable.

Predicted Score: Texas 31, OK 20
Actual Score: Texas 45, OK 12 (L)

Missouri (-4.5) @ Oklahoma St: This reeks of a trendy pick, since Col just got done smoking Ok St in Stillwater. However, despite their efforts against OK, Missouri has a very good offense, while Ok St has shown nothing by problems moving the football. Ok St is currently 103rd in total offense, and has managed this ineptitude against the likes of Montana State, Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State.

Predicted Score: Missouri 27, Ok St 10
Actual Score: Missouri 37, OK St 31 (W)

Texas Tech (-4) @ Nebraska: The Neb defense is solid, having sacked the QB 26 times in the first four games. If Tech can keep the BlackShirts off of Cody Hodges, he should be able to pick apart a secondary that gave up 317 yards to Brett Meyers last week. In addition, the Tech defense is likely to be overlooked, but they have the talent to stifle an average Husker offense. This game could be close, so tread lightly.

Predicted Score: Texas Tech 27, Nebraska 17
Actual Score: Texas Tech 34, Nebraska 31 (L)

**C**

Florida State (-21.5) v. Wake Forest: Some may look at WF's 211 rushing ypg, but of more importance is Florida State's defense allowing only 73 ypg on the ground. WF has become a much better team since Cory Randolph was moved from WR back to QB, but this FSU defense is only giving up 12 points per game, and will likely continue to dominate. The wild card is QB Drew Weatherford. If he struggles, FSU wont cover. If he continues to improve, FSU should win in a walk.

Predicted Score: FSU 35, WF 7
Actual Score: FSU 41, WF 24 (L)

Ohio St (-3.5) @ Penn St: Minnesota may not be a top 5 team, but beating them was a major coup for the Nittany Lions, and they are bound to have a let down. Ohio St is one of the top 3 teams in the nation, regardless of their loss to Texas, and are continuing to get better. After throttling Iowa, they should have the speed and toughness to shut down the PSU defense.

Predicted Score: Ohio St 27, Penn St 10
Actual Score: Penn St 17, Ohio St 10 (L)

UCLA (-1) v. Cal: Alot of public money is pushing this number towards Cal. I originally thought Cal looked like an attractive pick, especially after the problems UCLA had last week. But this is a test Bruins team going against a team who has made their bones against nobodys like Illinois, Arizona, and New Mexico St. The Cal offense and run defense are both very good, but the Bruins have an experienced defense and steadily improving offense. They wont blow out the Bears, but the should win.

Predicted Score: UCLA 31, Cal 28
Actual Score: UCLA 47, Cal 41 (W)

Georgia (+3) @ Tennessee: I have been back and forth on this game, but the recent health problems for Rick Claussen lead me to think Georgia will pull out a squeaker. No teams are evenly matched as these two. Tenn has the 4th best rush defense, but Georgia's strength is a mobile QB and a three headed running attack, which means they can always have a fresh set of legs in the backfield. This will be a dog fight from start to finish.

Predicted Score: Tennessee 21, Georgia 20
Actual Score: Georgia 27, Tennessee 14 (W)

OVER/UNDERS -

Miami/Duke UNDER 43.5: Miami will get a shutout, but they are going against a decent secondary which means they will be running the ball alot. Tyrone Moss will go for 170, and Miami wins 35-0. (L)

Cincy/Pitt UNDER 52: This number is very high considering Pitt struggles with everyone, and Cincy is a young, ineffective offensive team. Who wins is meaningless. (L)

Army/Central Michigan UNDER 52: Army has its moments, but they are not a juggernaut. Both teams run the ball well, and should battle on the ground to a final score somewhere in the mid 40s. (W)

**LEANS**

Wyoming (-6) v TCU: Tye Gunn is doubtful, and Wyoming is rolling, especially at home. (L)

West Michigan (-12) v Ball St: If Temple didn't exist, Ball St would be the worst team in Div I. (L)

Iowa (+5) @ Purdue: The Boilermakers were exposed, and Kirk Ferentz is the kind of coach who takes advantage when he sees weakness. 5 seems like a lot of points for two evenly matched teams, who were grossly overrated at the outset. (W)

Utah (+4.5) @ Col St: CSU has been strong lately, while Utah is very enigmatic. I expect them to put it together this week, albeit on the road. The Rams are a good team, but are they 5 pts better than Utah? Me thinks not. (W)

October 1, 2005

2005-09-27T23:48:00.000-07:00

Rough week last week. After a strong first few weeks, last week was a real "back to normal" experience, where I put my faith in some teams that proved to be worse than previously thought. In addition, while some wins came in late fashion, some losses were either unexpected, or last minute. Wisconsin running the ball in with 20 seconds left was a heart breaker, while teams like Marshall (giving Central Florida their first win in years) and Iowa (blown out by Ohio St) demonstrated they will not be quality teams this year, despite what early prognosticators thought.

Last Week: 8-9 (.471)

Year to Date: 50-30-3 (.639)

Hoping to rebound this week, below are this week's picks. Of note from last week, I graded my picks based on how I felt about them. The lesson, as always, is take my A picks as well as my D - gut picks. But always avoid the C level picks, which are always 50-50 at best. A picks went 4-1, D picks went 2-0, while B and C picks went a combined 2-8. Below are picks sorted by rating. As always, these picks are for entertainment purposes only:

**A**

Texas (-14.5) @ Missouri: Mizzou has had some decent scoring games, but they are susceptible to a good offense. At home, the thought it they will keep it close, but this is a Texas team that is finding its way. They have had two weeks off, and the defense will be well rested, and will dominate a young Tiger offense.

Predicted Score: Texas 35, Mizzouri 6
Actual Score: Texas 51, Missouri 10 (W)

UCLA (-21.5) v. Washington: The Bruins are back. Historically, they have been strong offensively, but this year, the Bruins are showing some toughness on defense. UW will rely on the arm and legs of QB Isaiah Stanback, but speedy linebackers Spencer Havner and Justin London will eliminate the scrambling threat, allowing Bruins d-backs to shut down the passing game. Look for Maurice Drew and co. to run up a substantial score on the undermanned Huskies.

Predicted Score: UCLA 45, Washington 21
Actual Score: UCLA 21, Wash 17 (L)

Texas Tech (-18) v. Kansas: Alot of people are looking at this as the game where the Raiders are exposed after beating up on cupcakes. However, few recognize that Kansas built its resume on FAU, App St, and La Tech. Tech plays fastbreak football, and will run up a large number on Kansas. Little known is that the Red Raiders have talented defenders, and will hold the mediocre Jayhawks in check at home.

Predicted Score: Texas Tech 49, Kansas 17
Actual Score: Texas Tech 30, Kansas 16 (L)

Oregon St (-2) v. Washington St: Last week, I dumped all over the Beavers. This week, Mike Riley and I are best friends. The OSU offense is lead by good but inconsistent talent. However, Wash St has been beating up on nobodies, while the Beavs have seen Louisville and ASU up close. The experience will be enough to make OSU a touchdown better than the Cougs.

Predicted Score: Oregon State 27, Washington 17
Actual Score: Oregon State 44, Washington St 33 (W)

**B**

Virginia (-3.5) @ Maryland: Maryland, damn you. I can't read them to save my ass. However, one team I can read is Virginia. Marcus Hagans is coming into his own, and possesses the talent to get this offense going. Maryland is young, and should have trouble against an experienced and talented Virginia defense lead by LBs Ahmad Brooks and Kai Parnam.

Predicted Score: Virginia 27, Maryland 21
Actual Score: Maryland 45, Virginia 33 (L)

Minnesota/Penn State OVER 50: Points, points, and more points. Neither defense can get it done, and both offenses posses more speed than should be legal. The lean is towards the Gophers less the field goal, but the over seems downright obvious.

Predicted Score: Minnesota 38, Penn State 27
Actual Score: Penn St 44, Minn 14 TOT 58 (W)

No Carolina (-3.5) v. Utah: This is a tough one. When QB Brian Johnson is on, Utah looks tough enough to score on anyone. However, UNC is a very young team that is putting it together game by game. They are coming off a touchdown victory over NC St, a team that pressed Va Tech to the very end. Look for a close game much like last week's victory

Predicted Score: UNC 31, Utah 27
Actual Score: UNC 31, Utah 17 (W)

USC (-13.5) @ Arizona State: This line is moving like crazy, and thank god it is. At the opening 16.5, this was a tenuous pick. But thanks to an eager public, the line is under the two touchdown lead the Trojans are likely to finish with. ASU is better than Oregon, but not this much better. Wait for UCLA before taking a dog against this juggernaut.

Predicted Score: USC 56, Arizona St 28
Actual Score: USC 38, ASU 28 (L)

Purdue (-3) v. Notre Dame: Purdue is as inconsistent as they come, barely beating Arizona, then going to OT vs. Minnesota. Notre Dame, meanwhile, has been very strong, although they only managed 36 pts against an undermanned Husky squad. Look for a very upset Purdue squad to exploit the overrated ND defense, and shut down Darius Walker. This may even become a blow out.

Predicted Score: Purdue 35, Notre Dame 21
Actual Score: Notre Dame 49, Purdue 28 (L)

Memphis (+3.5) v. UTEP: What have the Miners done to earn this? Memphis has been sloppy, but too much is being made of their 10-7 loss to Mississippi, and not enough being made of their next two games when they cleared 30 pts. UTEP has been sloppy, and will have severe troubles on the road. Jordan Palmer is a scatter arm, while RB Tyler Ebell is extremely fumble prone. Look for RB DeAngelo Williams to go for 220 and three tds.

Predicted Score: Memphis 34, UTEP, 28
Actual Score: Memphis 27, UTEP 20 (W)

Va Tech (-11) @ West Virginia: How good is WV? I submit that they are not nearly as good as they were at Maryland. Meanwhile, VT is not only as good as advertised, but better. Marcus Vick improves every game, and if the two headed monster of Humes and Imoh can get just a fraction more running room, they will destroy the Mountaineers.

Predicted Score: VT 28, West Virginia 10
Actual Score: VT 34, WV 17 (W)

**C**

Wisconsin (-17.5) v Indiana: Tough call here. The Badgers have had big scoring games, and other matches where they have struggled. However, against the Hoosiers, they should be able to run and pass at will, while Indy will struggle to move the ball at all.

Predicted Score: Wisc 38, Indiana 13
Actual Score: Wisc 41, Indiana 14 (L)

Oklahoma St (+3.5) v. Colorado: The Buffs are not back, which isnt to say that Ok State is. This is a home game between equally matched teams, talent wise. If the Cowboy offense can preform up to their abilities, they should win this outright.

Predicted Score: Colorado 21, Ok St 20
Actual Score: Col 27, Ok St 0 (L)

Clemson (-7) @ Wake Forest: If it is one thing we have learned this year, it is that Wake is not very good. Even at home, I doubt they will be able to stop Charlie Whitehurst and co. Coming off a disappointing home loss to BC, look for the Tigers to rebound against a very weak Wake Forest team, who has shown no ability to run the ball, throw the ball, or stop either.

Predicted Score: Clemson 31, Wake Forest 17
Actual Score: WF 31, Clemson 27 (L)

Nebraska (-3.5) v. Iowa St: Call it a hunch, but it appears that ISU is not nearly as good as they seemed, especially since Iowa, their highest profile victim, has shown they are not nearly as good as expected. The Huskers are getting a hold of their offense, and the defense is improving by each game.

Predicted Score: Nebraska 24, Iowa State 20
Actual Score: Neb 27, ISU 20 (W)

Oklahoma (-6.5) v. Kansas State: This game shoud really be ranked higher for me. OK will finally get untracked after an uncharacteristic blow out loss in Pasadena. K St has built a strong record against nobodies, while OK has had an extra week to get Rhett Bomar in sync with the offense. Look for A Pete to go for 190.

Predicted Score: OK 35, K St 14
Actual Score: OK 43, K St 21 (W)

BYU (-1.5) @ San Diego St: John Beck appears to have the BYU offense clicking, despite their recent loss to TCU. The Cougs still dropped 50, and will look to do similarly in San Diego. The Aztecs are a decent bunch, coming off a nice performance against San Jose St, but the small line means a close game. Im not sure the Tecs have the experience to win a close game right now.

Predicted Score: BYU 35, SD St, 31
Actual Score: SD St 31, BYU 10 (L)

**D** [No explanations. These are mostly leans...]

Florida (-3.5) @ Alabama (L)
Michigan State (-5.5) v. Michigan [this game makes me nervous] (L)
Wyoming/UNLV under 51.5 (L)
Temple (+28.5) @ Bowling Green (L)
East Carolina (+7) v. Southern Miss (L)
Louisville (-38) v. Florida Atlantic (W)
Arkansas St (-3) @ UL Monroe [best bet in this group] (L)

Games of September 24th, 2005

2005-09-23T14:22:00.000-07:00

Good to date, but we have only had three weeks to go by. Week four should be the first true litmus test, as the odds makers have caught on to who is good, and who isn't. Never again will we get 6.5 for a Michigan State at Notre Dame, so finding value is becoming more and more difficult. As the lines shrink, taking alot of chalk no longer seems like such a bad idea. Here are this week's thoughts. The letter in parentheses represents the value on the game for betting purposes. A is a good bet, while a D is only a lean, and wagers should be smaller. In addition, I am now adding a predicted score:

Iowa (+7) @ Ohio State (B): This line is too high, because Iowa struggled with Iowa State, but that game was a rivalry game, and Drew Tate got hurt during the game. Ohio St is more talented, but Iowa is better coached. Also, OSU lost to Texas because Texas had better QB play, a problem that will keep this game close as well. Look for the Iowa linebackers to bottle up the Buckeye running game.

Predicted Score: Ohio St 23, Iowa 17
Actual Score: Ohio St 31, Iowa 6 [L]

Va Tech (-11) v. Georgia Tech (A): Va Tech is so much better than people think. Marcus Vick is overrated, but is good enough to keep this offense afloat. The defense will bottle up PJ Daniels, and force the injured Reggie Ball to beat them.

Predicted Score: VT 28, GT 14
Actual Score: Va Tech 51, Ga Tech 7 [W]

Penn St/Northwestern UNDER 50.5 (C): The Wildcats showed that they could only muster 21 pts against a decent Arizona St defense. The Penn St defense is much better, while their offense probably topped out for the season at 40 pts last week. Look for a 31-17 victory for the Nittany Lions.

Predicted Score: Penn State 31, NW 17
Actual Score: Penn State 34, NW 29 - Total Pts 63 [L]

Mich St (-10.5) @ Illinois (C): Many are saying the Illini are much improved, but based on what? Home wins against Rutgers (by 3) and San Jose St? They were beaten by 15 by a Cal team missing its best player, and the Spartans will stomp on the Illini, regardless of the locale.

Predicted Score: MSU 38, Illinois 21
Actual Score: MSU 61, Ill 14 [W]

Clemson (-2.5) v. Boston College (C): The Florida St game told us two things: The BC offense is better than we thought, and the BC defense is worse than we thought. Clemson has been explosive, dropping 30 on a fantastic Miami defense last week. BC will score plenty, but not enough. 35-30 seems reasonable.

Predicted Score: Clemson 35, BC 30
Actual Score: BC 23, Clemson 20 [L]

Wake Forest (-2) v. Maryland (A): The bottom line is that Maryland is not very good. I totally overrated them last week, and learned my lesson. Wake will run the ball down Maryland's throat, and their home field advantage should be enough to constitute a 3 point victory.

Predicted Score: Wake Forest 27, Maryland 20
Actual Score: Maryland 22, Wake Forest 12 [L]

Ohio (-4) v. Kent St (C): Ohio beat Pitt, but that win is slowly looking less valuable. Kent has struggled on the road, and Ohio's defense should step up this week.

Predicted Score: Ohio 17, Kent 10
Actual Score: Ohio 35, Kent 32 [L]

TCU (+3.5) @ BYU (D): Not too confident in this pick. TCU's loss at SMU makes me skeptical, but they seemed to have gotten back on track last week. BYU has had trouble scoring, and the TCU defense should make sure that continues.

Predicted Score: TCU 17, BYU 14
Actual Score: TCU 51, BYU 50 [W]

Alabama (-15) v. Arkansas (B): I was wrong about Alabama as well, as they really took it to So Carolina. They had better athletes, and Brodie Croyle finally looked more consistent. If he can maintain his level of composure, they will destroy a young Arkansas team that should be emotionally drained coming off destruction at the hands of USC.

Predicted Score: Alabama 37, Arkansas 14
Actual Score: Alabama 24, Arkansas 13 [L]

Notre Dame/Washington UNDER 54 (A): There is no legitimate reason for this over/under to be so high. Wash has had some big scoring games, but against considerably poor competition. Against more talented teams, like Cal, they have struggled. Notre Dame scored 41 points last week, but in desperation. Look for the Irish to jump ahead, then lean on the running game.

Predicted Score: Notre Dame 34, Washington 7
Actual Score: Notre Dame 36, Washington 17 - Total Pts 53 [W]

Miami-FL (-14) v. Colorado (B): Miami put on a display of the real Hurricans against Clemson last week, scoring 36 points on the road. Colorado has done a great job rebuilding, but they are still considerably outclassed by this Miami team. The defense should bottle up Joe Klatt, and Tyrone Moss and co. should run for days.

Predicted Score: Miami 35, Colorado 9
Actual Score: Miami 23, Colorado 3 [W]

USC (-21) @ Oregon (D): I'd love to take Oregon and the points, but I just can't bring myself to do it. Even on the road, against an improved Duck team, I don't see USC letting up one bit. Too many weapons means alot of points. Oregon gave up 21 to Houston, then 27 to Fresno. They might surrender 40+ to the Trojans ,who will solve Kellen Clemmons, leaving the Ducks with a limited offense.

Predicted Score: USC 42, Oregon 14
Actual Score: USC 45, Oregon 13 [W]

Marshall (-3.5) @ Central Florida (C): Marshall is Marshall. They always have a decent offense, and a good mid-major squad. This year is no different. They won't be as dominant as years past, but they can win the games they should, which includes this game at the Golden Knights, who struggled with a decent So Florida team last week, but were still beaten by 17.

Predicted Score: Marshall 28, C Fla 24
Actual Score: CFU 23, Marshall 13 [L]

Tulsa (-1.5) v. Memphis (A+): Roll on Golden Hurricane. After destroying No Texas last week, they should lay the wood to an average Memphis team, regardless of the presence of their All American running back. Look for the Tulsa offense to roll up a good amount of points, while the defense keeps with the bend don't break philosophy.

Predicted Score: Tulsa 31, Memphis 28
Actual Score: Tulsa 37, Memphis 31 [W]

Michigan (-2.5) @ Wisconsin (C): Last week, the Wolverines got back to normal, and dropped a 55-0 on poor Eastern Washington. Meanwhile, Wisconsin took a step back and struggled to score 14 points against North Carolina. Wisc has shown they are weak against the pass, and Chad Henne should take advantage of them. This wil not be a blow out, but Michigan has many more weapons, and should win somewhat comfortably.

Predicted Score: Michigan 24, Wisconsin 17
Actual Score: Wisconsin 23, Michigan 20 [L]

SMU (+3.5) v. Tulane (C): Tulane stinks, and SMU beat TCU at home the week after TCU beat Oklahoma. Call it a hunch.

Predicted Score: SMU 24, Tulane 20
Actual Score: Tulane 31, SMU 10 [L]

Arizona State (-7) @ Oregon State (A): ASU is a very good team, who will be the Trojans' toughest competition in the Pac 10 along with UCLA. Their defense is underrated, and their offense has shown the ability to run the ball alot better than expected. Yes, it is a road game, but Oregon State can't stop anyone. They will get their points, but will simply be outscored.

Predicted Score: Arizona St 42, Oregon St 27
Actual Score: ASU 42, OSU 24 [W]

September 17th, 2005

2005-09-16T20:35:00.000-07:00

Here are the picks for this week. Since it is still early, I will choose as many games as possible, with a short explanation. Next week, we may start the star pick system again. Last weekend was good, and only Ohio St kept me from a very successful weekend. Will I be fooled by Pitt again? Don't count on it....

Maryland (-3) v. West Virginia: Maryland is coming off a tight loss to Clemson, a team proving to be better than previously thought. WV is a lot less talented than in years past, though Rich Rodriguez is still a quality coach who will keep this close. Friedgen is a better coach, and the Maryland running game, and the defense (led by AA LB DQuell Jackson) will hold WV under 21.

WEST VIRGINIA 31, MARYLAND 19 (L)

Vanderbilt (-3) v. Mississippi: Jay Cutler may be the best QB in the SEC. Look for him to lead Vandy to another win against a good Ole Miss defense. Miss only managed 10 pts against a terrible Memphis defense.

VANDERBILT 30, OLE MISS 23 (W)

Boston College (+1.5) v. Florida St: BC defense is good enough to keep this game close. Home field advantage should be the deciding factor. Under 37 may be the better play.
[NOTE: I changed this pick to Florida St before kickoff]

FLORIDA ST 28, BOSTON COLLEGE 17 (W)
45 TOTAL POINTS (L)

Mich St (+6) @ Notre Dame: Drew Stanton is a better QB than Chad Henne, and will provide more of a challenge for the ND defense. Look for Mich St to stay close with a balanced attack. Way too many points to give a team that won in its last trip to South Bend.

MICH ST 44, NOTRE DAME 41 [OT] (W)

UCLA (-6.5) v. Oklahoma: Oklahoma is terrible, and UCLA will expose their problems on defense. The only issue will be stopping AD (All Day Adrian Peterson). Over 51.5 is a better play.

UCLA 41, OKLAHOMA 24 (W)
65 TOTAL POINTS (W)

Nebraska (-9.5) v. Pitt: Pitt sucks. I will not fall for them again. Nebraska at home should be enough.

NEBRASKA 7, PITTSBURGH 6 (L)

So Carolina (+1.5) v. Alabama: The gamecocks are a good defensive team, with offensive potential. The old ball coach should start figuring it out as an overrated Bama team comes into town.

ALABAMA 37, SO CAR 14 (L)

Cal (-21) v. Illinois: Illinois is horrible, and J Ayoob demonstrated last week that he has what it takes to run the Tedford offense. Marshawn Lynch looks better than JJ Arrington, and should go for 220 against the Illini.
[NOTE: Marshawn Lynch was declared out for this game before kick off, and I took it off the board]

NP

Wisconsin (-3.5) @ No Carolina: No Carolina played over their head against G Tech, and the Wisc running game looks like it is for real. Disregard the road game, and take the Big Ten here.

WISCONIN 14, UNC 5 (W)

Fresno St (+2.5) @ Oregon: Look for FSU to get physical with the Ducks, and win this game by a field goal. Beware the injury to DT McIntyre, as well as Oregon's superior team speed. Bet small.
[NOTE: Got 3 points or this game.]

OREGON 37, FRESNO 34 (P)

Tennessee (+6) @ Florida: Regardless of where this game is played, 6 points is too much for either team. Disregard the matchup, and take the points based solely on the fact this game will be tighter than that.

FLORIDA 16, TENN 7 (L)

Arizona (+7) v. Purdue: At home, Arizona will be to tough to blow out. Mike Stoops is building a strong team, with a great defense and a solid running game. Purdue is not nearly as talented as the "experts" say

PURDUE 31, ARIZONA 24 (P)

Arizona St (-14.5) v. Northwestern: NW plays great at home, and beat No Ill by 1 last week at home, indicating they arent as strong as in the past. On the road, against a superior offense, and underrated defense, the Cats will struggle. Their RB is a true freshman who will struggle on the road.

ARIZONA ST 52, NORTHWESTERN 21 (W)

Minnesota (-31) v. Florida Atlantic: The Gopher offense is dominant at the start of the season, traditionally, and FAU doesn't have nearly the talent to keep Minn from scoring at least 50 pts. The defense has improved dramatically, and should keep FAU under 10. A definite blow out.

MINNESOTA 46, FAU 7 (W)

Late Additions:

Mississippi St (-3) v. Tulane MSU 21, TULANE 14 (W)
New Mexico (-22) v. New Mexico St NM 38, NMSU 21 (L)
So Florida (-7) v. Cent Florida SO FLA 31, C FLA 14 (W)
Kentucky/Indiana O/51 INDIANA 38, KENT 14 TOTAL 52 (W)
Tulsa (+3.5) @ No Texas TULSA 54 , NTU 2 (W)
Louisville (-14.5) v. Oregon St L'VILLE 63, OSU 27 (W)
Michigan (-29) v. E Mich MICH 55, E MICH 0 (W)

WEEK 3: 14-7-2 (.696)

YEAR TO DATE: 42-21-3 (.682)

Glorious Return

2005-09-14T00:30:00.000-07:00

Well, Worm is back with his college football picks. Since no one reads this, Im not to concerned with the feedback. But if you stumble upon this site, I can guarentee that these picks are well thought out, consistent winners a majority of the time. Not all picks can be guarentees, and sometimes, the guarentees suck and the one star picks come through regularly. Look at last year's percentages, and the early returns when using this analysis.

I havent posted for the first two weeks, but based on my own personal wagers, here are my picks for the first two weeks, and a summary of performance:

WEEK 1

September 1-3, 2005

Ohio State (-15) vs Miami (OH) FINAL - Ohio St 34, Miami 14 W
Miami (FL) (-3) @ Florida St FINAL - FSU 10, Miami 7 L
Illinois (+110) v. Rutgers FINAL - Illinois 33, Rutgers 30 W
Mich St (-19.5) v. Kent FINAL - Mich St 49, Kent 14 W
Notre Dame/Pitt OVER 52.5 FINAL - ND 42, Pitt 21 W
Miss/Memphis UNDER 50 FINAL - Miss 10, Memphis 6 W
Va Tech (-3.5) @ NC St FINAL - Va Tech 20, NC St 16 W
UCLA (-9.5) @ SD St FINAL - UCLA 44, SD St 21 W
Boston Coll (-2.5) @ BYU FINAL - BC 20, BYU 3 W
Bowl. Grn (+115) @ Wisc FINAL - Wisconsin 56, BG 42 L
Arizona (+7.5) @ Utah FINAL - Utah 27, Arizona 24 W
USC (-34.5) @ Hawaii FINAL - USC 63, Hawaii 17 W
Tex A&M (-2) @ Clemson FINAL - Clemson 25, Tex A&M 24 L
Michigan (-19) v. No Ill FINAL - Michigan 33, No Ill 17 L
L'ville (-22) @ Kentucky FINAL - L'ville 31, Kent 24 L
Boise St (+7.5) @ Georgia FINAL - Georgia 48, Boise St 13 L
Wyoming (+23) @ Florida FINAL - Florida 32, Wyoming 14 W
Virginia (-34) v. W Mich FINAL - Virginia 31, W Mich 19 L
TCU (+26.5) @ Oklahoma FINAL - TCU 17, Ok 10 W
Ga Tech (+7) @ Auburn FINAL - Ga Tech 23, Auburn 14 W

WEEK RECORD: 13-7 (.650)

WEEK 2

September 9-10, 2005

Wash St (-9) @ Nevada FINAL - Wash St 55, Nevada 21 W
Pitt (-14.5) v. Ohio Ohio 16, Pitt 10 L
Notre Dame (+7) @ Michigan ND 17, Mich 10 W
Clemson (+105) @ Maryland Clemson 28, Maryland 24 W
Navy (+3) v. Stanford Stanford 41, Navy 38 P
Northwestern (-2.5) v No Ill NW 38, No Ill 37 L
Alabama (-12) @ So Miss Alabama 30, So Miss 21 L
Ga Tech (-12.5) v. No Carolina Ga Tech 27, UNC 21 L
Va Tech (-20.5) @ Duke Va Tech 45, Duke 0 W
Wyoming (-21) v. UL Monroe Wyoming 38, UL Monroe 0 W
Toledo (-22.5) v. W Mich Toledo 56, W Mich 23 W
No Texas (+4) @ Mid Tenn St No Texas 14, MTSU 7 W
LSU (+1.5) @ Arizona St LSU 35, ASU 31 W
Iowa (-9.5) @ Iowa St Iowa St 23, Iowa 3 L
Mich St (-31) v. Hawaii Mich St 42, Hawaii 14 L
Boston College (-27.5) v Army BC 44, Army 7 W
Minnesota (-13) v. Colorado St Minn 56, CSU 24 W
Boise St (+3.5) @ Oregon St Oregon St 30, BSU 27 W
Nebraska (-6.5) v. Wake Forest Nebraska 31, WF 3 W
New Mexico (+11) @ Missouri NM 45, Missouri 35 W
LSU/ASU UNDER 52 LSU 35, ASU 31 L
Ohio St (-1) v Texas Texas 25, Ohio St 22 L
So Carolina (+18) @ Georgia Georgia 17, USC 15 W
So Car/Georgia OVER 47.5 Georgia 17, USC 15 L
TCU (-13.5) @ SMU SMU 21, TCU 10 L
UCLA (-24.5) v. Rice UCLA 63, Rice 21 W

WEEK 2 RECORD: 15-7-1 (.696)

RECORD TO DATE: 28-14-1 (.674)

February 14, 2005

2005-02-14T14:44:00.000-08:00

I have been off it for a while, but I am back. Expect daily thoughts on the NBA and NCAA hoops. Here are today's picks:

Syracuse (-5.5) v. Pittsburgh
Kansas (-3) @ Texas Tech
Toledo (+4) @ Akron
Drexel (-7.5) v. UNC Wilmington
Air Force (+4) @ New Mexico
Davidson (+2) @ College of Charleston

-t

November 13, 2004

2004-11-13T13:25:00.000-08:00

Not doing well lately. Trying too hard to pick games to chose, when I should be picking all of the games. Perhaps its school getting tougher, plus Im sick, so I havent looked at games very closely. I am almost .500, so beware. This is my redemption week though. I am picking almost every game on the board. No explanations given due to volume:

Rating_____Last Week's_________Previous Week____Season Overall
LOTW....................1-0........................................1-0................................3-1
5 Star....................1-0..........................................3-0..............................10-5
4 Star....................2-1...........................................0-1..............................9-6
3 Star....................0-1..........................................0-4...............................8-10
2 Star....................0-6...........................................2-2.............................11-11-1
1 Star....................0-2...........................................0-1.............................2-6
Total.....................3-10........................................5-8.............................40-38-1 (61%)

5 Stars

Utah (-22) @ Wyoming
Air Force (-6) v. San Diego St
Arizona State (-12.5) v. Washington State
Virginia (-3.5) v. Miami (FL)
UAB (-8.5) v. Houston

4 Stars

Michgan (-13.5) v. Northwestern
Syracuse (-9) @ Temple
Texas A&M (-2.5) v. Texas Tech
Kansas (+21) v. Texas
Arkansas (-8.5) v. Mississippi
Colorado State (-6.5) v. UNLV
Georgia (+5) @ Auburn
Oklahoma (-29) v. Nebraska
Ohio State (+4) @ Purdue
Ball State (-3.5) v. South Florida
SMU (+&) v. Nevada-Reno

3 Stars

Indiana (-3.5) v. Penn State
Ohio (PK) v. Akron
W. Michigan (+20) @ Miami (OH)
New Mexico (+6.5) @ BYU
Oregon (-6) v. UCLA
California (-30.5) @ Washington
Wake Forest (-5) v. No. Carolina
Bowling Green (-10) v. Marshall
UTEP (-17) v. Rice

2 Stars

Georgia Tech (-9) v. UConn
Boston College (+7) @ West Virginia
Minnesota (-3) v. Iowa
Clemson (-12.5) @ Duke
Vanderbilt (-1.5) @ Kentucky
C. Mich (-4.5) @ Buffalo
Pittsburgh (+11) @ Notre Dame
So. Carolina (+7) @ Florida
Kent (-11) v. E. Mich
La. Tech (-4.5) v. Tulsa
Army (+6) @ Tulane

1 Star

Wisc (-8) @ Michigan State
Baylor (+24.5) @ Oklahoma State
Colorado (-3) v. Kansas St
Stanford (PK) v. Oregon State
San Jose State (+31) v. Boise State

November 6, 2004

2004-11-06T11:44:00.000-08:00

I wrote alot on this week, but it got lost trying to post. I dont have time to retype it. Sorry. Just know my thoughts on the games based on the star rating:

*****5 Star Picks:

Hawaii (-4) v. La Tech (Lock of the Week)
Hawaii 34, La Tech 23 (W)

****4 Star Picks:

Michigan State (PK) v. Ohio St
Ohio State 32, Michigan St 19 (L)

Illinois (-2) v. Indiana
Illinios 26, Indiana 22 (W)

Oklahoma/Texas A&M OVER 53.5
Oklahoma 42, Texas A&M 35 TOT 77 (W)

***3 Star Picks:

Southern Miss (-6) v. Cincy
Cincy 52, Southern Miss 24 (L)

**2 Star Picks:

West Virginia (-28) v. Temple
West Virginia 42, Temple 21 (L)

Pittsburgh (+4) @ Syracuse
Syracuse 38, Pittsburgh 32 (OT) (L)

Tennesse (-7) v. Notre Dame
Notre Dame 17, Tennessee 13 (L)

Arizona State (-10.5) v. Stanford
Arizona St 34, Stanford 31 (L)

South Carolina (-3.5) v. Arkansas
S. Carolina 35, Arkansas 32 (L)

Florida Atlantic (+13.5) @ Troy St
Troy St 24, Fla Atlanta 6 (L)

ONE LOUSY STAR:

Colorado State (+26.5) @ Utah
Utah 63, Colorado 31 (L)

Rice (+7) @ Fresno State
Fresno St 52, Rice 14 (L)

Weekend of October 30-31, 2004

2004-10-27T16:09:00.000-07:00

Finally back in the mix. I haven't been keeping up on this like I should have, but then again, I didn't want to post picks without giving them the proper analysis. This week, Im ahead of schedule. First, the weekend of Oct 9 provided some bad high star picks, but some of the lower fliers came through. The lesson, as always, Im an idiot. The last week I posted I was 6-4 overall, leaving the season breakdown as follows:

Rating_____Last Week's Record____Season Overall
LOTW....................0-1.............................1-1
5 Star....................0-2.............................6-5
4 Star....................0-1.............................7-4
3 Star....................4-0.............................8-5
2 Star....................2-0.............................9-3-1
1 Star....................0-1..............................2-3

Total.....................6-4.............................32-20-1 (61%)

Not bad. Here are this week's picks:

5 Star Picks:

Cincinnati (-6) vs. TCU: Cincy is coming off a 49-10 drubbing of a very good Memphis team. They may have lost to Army, but they have been making up for it since. QB Guidugli has been playing exceptionally well, and threw three scores last week. TCU has been struggling all year to beat the mid level teams, getting absolutely destroyed by Texas Tech along the way (70-30). Its a home game for the Bearcats, so give the measly points.
Cincinnati 21, TCU 10 W

Utah (-18.5) @ San Diego State: Utah is rolling. SD St. showed signs of being a decent ball club when they gave an underachiving Michigan squad a run, but since then, they have lost alot of offensive players to injury, and will be starting a new QB this weekend. Utah is up to 6 in the BCS rankings, and plans on showing the Aztecs why. Somewhere around 42-10 should be about right. Utah 51, San Diego St 28 W

Ohio St (-6) vs. Penn State (Lock of the Week): I can't believe Ohio St, coming off a 30-7 victory where they discovered a new running threat, is hosting a Penn State team that failed to score at home against Iowa, and is only giving 6. This is the gift of all gifts. Ohio State 21, Penn State 10 W

4 Star Picks:

Central Michigan (-7) vs. Western Michigan: Fool me once, Western. I took a flier on them against Ball St, and they turtled on me to the tune of a 30 point loss. On the road once more, they face a Central team that barely lost at Toledo last week. Western is coming off of a 30 point loss to Northern Illinois, at home, and should struggle on the road this week. Central MI 24, Western MI 21 (OT) L

3 Star Picks:

Miami (FL) (-21) @ North Carolina: It seems like a shady pick, what with UNC beating NC St at home. I just don't see it that way. The Miami defense is playing alot better, and made the proper adjustments after giving up 38 to Louisville. At the same time, Brock Berlin has decided to play like a Div I quarterback, and the offense is showing alot of life. Give the points, and don't feel bad. North Carolina 31, Miami 21 L

Michigan (-11) v. Michigan State: Do not overrate the Spartans beating on Minnesota. Much like last year, the Gophers had a tremendous let down after losing to Michigan in what has become the most important game of the season for them. They showed their true colors by bouncing back and trashing Illinois 45-0. The same Illini who gave Michigan all they could handle the week before. The Wolverines are on all cylinders right now, with RB Hart providing the running game they lacked early on. A very low number indeed.
Michigan 45, Michigan State 37 (OT) L

Minnesota (-17.5) @ Indiana: See above. Also, the Hoosiers have 4 key injuries that they aren't talking about. This could, and should, be ugly. Indiana 30, Minnesota 21 L

Purdue (-9.5) @ Northwestern: Another road favorite, but this one makes me a tad nervous. The Wildcats showed they were mildcats against Wisconsin last week, putting up a measly 13 points. However, at home, they are known to get quite offensive. Problem, they face Purdue, who can put up some numbers on their own. Look for Orton and the boys to get untracked after a real battle in Ann Arbor last week. 35-21 wouldn't shock me. Northwestern 13, Purdue 10 L

2 Star Picks:

Kansas (-4.5) @ Iowa State: Ride that horse until it throws you off, I say. Kansas has been the golden boys all year, so why stop now. The book continues to put low numbers on them, and I say, reap the rewards, good gambler. They took a beating last week to Oklahoma, but that is to be expected. Their victory over Kansas State demonstrates that they are more than a middle of the pack team, and Iowa State is just crap. Home game or not, the Cyclones will get beaten by a touchdown. Iowa State 13, Kansas 7 L

UCLA (-5) v. Stanford: Home game. That's it. Stanford and UCLA are very close, but on the road, the Cardinal has proven to be below average. The Bruins scored 42 in Tempe last week, and would have upset the Devils if A Walter hadn't turned into Roger Staubach. I expect the Bruin running game to get back on track, and for D Olson to continue to develop as a signal caller. UCLA 21, Stanford 0 W

San Jose St (+16) v. UTEP: The Spartans are my covering darlings. They seem to hang around enough to make it interesting week after week, and even manage an upset or two. UTEP is ripe for the picking. Recently ranked 24 in the BCS, the Miners will be coming in on a high, only to face a gritty Spartan squad in the much and mire of Spartan Stadium. Expect the Miner ground attack to get shut down by the weather, and for the Spartans to air it out and keep this thing close. Love them home dogs..... UTEP 38, San Jose St 20 L

Oklahoma St (+12) v. Oklahoma: When the bricklayer did the work in the new Cowboys stadium, he inlaid the OU symbol as a joke. Ok St hasnt laughed since, and there will be a lot of bad blood this weekend in Stillwater. 12 almost doesn't seem like enough, but the Sooners will have alot more on their hands than they bargain for. Consider this a strong lean.... Oklahoma 38, Oklahoma St. 35 W

One louse star:

Arizona (+7) vs. Oregon State: After giving LSU all they could handle, the Beavers have been nothing short of garbage. Derek Anderson has fallen apart, and no one else in the orange and black has proven to be effective. Arizona, mind you, is terrible, and should never find their way on here. But that is a Bob Stoop defense out there, and this is a home game. Two factors I believe will be enough to keep this thing within 7.
Oregon State 28, Arizona 14 L

College Games, Oct 9, 2004

2004-10-07T17:08:00.000-07:00

Ok, I didnt get my picks posted last week. I wrote them down, and then as I was entering them, something came up, and I only got two typed, so I didnt post. I will not post them until after tomorrow, so they dont effect anyone's belief in this week's picks. Im pretty sure I was about .500 last week. I can assure you that all the picks are legitimate from last week, so posting them will be solely for updating my actual record. Below are this week's picks. I have left Minnesota off for fear of upsetting the karma gods.....

***** 5 Star Games

Florida (-3.5) v. LSU (Lock of the Week): LSU is hardly the team they were thought to be. The QB situation is brutal, and CJ Leak gets better every week. Too many weapons on offense against an LSU defense that has been exposed by Auburn. LSU 24, Florida 21 L

Texas (+7) v. Oklahoma (at Dallas): Texas, the leading rushing team in the nation, has struggled against OK due to a lack of a running game. Benson and Young are alot to handle, and Derrick Johnson is ready to lead the Tex defense the way Roy Williams once led the OK defense. Texas should win outright. Jason White is a fraud. Oklahoma 12, Texas 0 L

**** 4 Star Games:

Ohio St (-3.5) v. Wisconsin: Both teams are absolute grinders, but Wisc has won their most difficult games at home. Traveling to the horseshoe should prove to be too much. Wisconsin 24, Ohio St 13 L

*** 3 Star Games:

Notre Dame (-4.5) v. Stanford: ND has shown that they can regroup after a tough loss, and the Stanford offense is not what Purdue is. Home field advantage wins out here. Notre Dame 23, Stanford 15 W

San Jose State (+17.5) @ Washington: UW will win, but the Spartans are that pesky kind of team that can throw the ball on a mediocre defense. They cant stop UW from scoring, but after the Rice game last week (70-63) I believe they can hang within two touchdowns. Washington 21, SJ St 6 W

Rice (-13.5) v. SMU: The Mustangs are terrible and have to travel to Rice to face a formidible running game. The Owls are a scoring machine and may blow out SMU by 30. Rice 44, SMU 10 W

Kansas (+3) v. Kansas State: Ahh, sweet, sweet home dogs. Again, Im riding with the Jayhawks, who have been my money team all season. K St isnt very good, and the Kansas D should corral Darren Sproles, who still hasnt gotten on track. Kansas 31, Kansas St 28 W

** 2 Star Games:

Oklahoma St (-6.5) @ Colorado: This is a road game, and that scares me, but Ok St is that unsung team that is quietly pounding everyone they play. Colorado is garbage, and showed that in losing to Missouri. Bobby Purify might be out, so the Cowboys are clear to crush the Buffs. W

California (+7) @ USC: I just think the Bears offense is too good to get blown out. Tedford is a great coach, and he gameplanned extremely well in leading the Bears over the Trojans last year. This is one of the better games of the year. Just look at Cal's dismantleing of Oregon State in Corvallis to see what they are capable of. USC 23, Cal 17 W

* One Lousy Star:

Florida State (-19.5) @ Syracuse: Probably a huge mistake. I gave my roommate the points, so I have to put the game on the board. Truth is, Lorenzo Booker on the carpet in the dome, and no Chris Rix, sounds like a three touchdown victory to me. Just too much athleticism. Florida St 17, Syracuse 13 L

Update: Sept 27

2004-09-27T11:39:00.000-07:00

Current Record Update. Good week last week. Couple really bad picks, but overall, betting my picks would have made for good money....

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Last Week: 1-0 Overall: 1-0

FIVE STAR PICKS: Last Week: 2-1 Overall: 6-3

FOUR STAR PICKS: Last Week: 2-1 Overall: 7-3

THREE STAR PICKS: Last Week: 2-0 Overall: 4-5

TWO STAR PICKS: Last Week: 2-1-1 Overall: 7-3-1

ONE STAR PICKS: Last Week: 1-0 Overall: 2-2

OVERALL: Last Week: 9-3-1 Overall: 26-16-1

September 25, 2004; Vol I

2004-09-24T20:37:00.000-07:00

Not much time to post tonight, but I want to make sure my picks get in before games start. I dont have any picks for Friday night, though I like No Ill (NOTE: NO ILL 34, BG 17) and am not so sure that Boise will cover against BYU (decent defense). (NOTE: BOISE 28, BYU 27)

Current record:

Five Star Picks: 4-2
Four Star Picks: 5-2
Three Star Picks: 2-5
Two Star Picks: 5-2
One Star Picks: 1-2

Overall: 17-13

Not bad for two weeks without really having any good information. Basically, this says that if I give you a high star game, its a winner. Three stars mean I can go either way, so avoid it. I like a game there, but have reservations. Apparently, my reservations have been correct. Note that one star picks are throw away, total caution into the wind picks. The key picks are the two stars. They are gut picks, where one team shows me something, and the trend is not in their favor, and I am going against it. 5-2 means my guy is often right. On to the picks:

***** 5 Star Picks

Notre Dame (-11.5) v. Washington: UW is just not good. A blow out for ND means by 14, but it should be enough here. Look for a 24-10 game, with ND displaying a more disciplined running game, and a more stout defense. (ND 38, WAS 13)

Virginia (-25.5) v. Syracuse: The Cuse put 37 on Buffalo. Big deal. They struggled to beat Cincy, and were dogs in that game. Purdue shut them out, and Virginia's defense is light years ahead of Purdue. At home, Marcus Hagan gets rolling, and Chris Canty and the boys hand another donut on the inept Cuse offense. (VIRGINIA 31, SYRACUSE 10)

Wisconsin (-2.5) v. Penn State (Lock of the Week): I have no idea why this game is so close. PSU has an exceptional offense, but were dismantled by BC. Wisc has won ugly, but they are impossible to beat at Camp Randall. This may be one ugly game, but Booker Stanley is more than enough at RB to make this a 3 point win.
(WISCONSIN 16, PENN STATE 3)

**** 4 Star Games

Kansas (+6.5) v. Texas Tech: Mike Mangino has a different team in Kansas than they have seen in the past. Ignore the 70 Tech hung on a TCU team that gave up 45 to Northwestern. Kansas plays strong defense, and should hang within the number at home. (TEX TECH 31, KANSAS 30)

Arkansas (-5.5) v. Alabama: Everyone likes the 3-0 Tide to compete, but without QB Brodie Croyle they will be lose. Ark took Tex to the wire, and QB Matt Jones is as good a running/passing QB there is in the nation. Very Major Harris-like. (ARK 27, ALABAMA 10)

Western Michigan (-3.5) @ Ball State: I know nothing here, other than WM has been very competitive, and Ball State stinks. Total gut feeling based on performance. (BALL ST 41, W MICH 14)

*** 3 Star Games

Wake Forest (+1.5) v. Boston College: This game opened with Wake a 2 point favorite, and I liked it then. I dont know where all the BC love is coming from, but Wake has proven to be better than advertised. RB Chris Barclay is for real, and should be enough to keep Wake in the game. The home field advantage is worth three points at least, and Pistol Paul goes down to the Deacons. (WF 17, BC 14)

Rice (+32.5) @ Texas: Traditionally, teams have a tough time preparing for the wish bone that Rice uses, but Texas has had two weeks, so they might blow the Owls out. Rice comes in with the best rushing defense in the nation, and Tex the best rushing offense in the nation. If the run-happy Owls can grind clock against the Horns, they should be able to keep the opposing offense off the field long enough to remain within the number. (TEXAS 35, RICE 13)

** 2 Star Picks:

Iowa (+13) @ Michigan: Something about this game stinks. Both are coming off subpar performances, but Iowa was horrible. Their defense and their offense were terrible. However, they are better defensively then they showed, and Michigan is hardly Arizona State. Iowa traditionally plays Michigan well, and I would take a Kirk Ferenz coached team over LLoyd Carr any day. Michigan just has better talent here, but they are not better prepared. (MICHIGAN 30, IOWA 17)

Air Force (+22) @ Utah: Utah is great, no doubt. But this is another case of the wishbone being tough to prepare for. The Utes should own the Falcons, but perhaps not enough to stay within 22. AF surprised UNLV at home last week, and should be playing with the confidence that they are a better team than they showed in week 1. (UTAH 49, AIR FORCE 35)

South Carolina (-14.5) v. Troy State: Troy was a darling pick until crapping on themselves last week. The win over Missouri has lost its luster, and after playing Georgia to a stalemate, the Gamecocks are showing to be better than a middle of the pack SEC team. They should win this game by 3 scores easily.
(SO CAR 17, TROY 7)

New Mexico (-6) @ New Mexico State: NMSt is a bad team, and has played some close games over their head. NM has shown to be a contender in the conference, and should demonstrate better athletes over the Aggies. (NEW MEXICO 38, NMST 13)

* 1 Freaking Star Games

Stanford (+21.5) v. USC: Just crazy talk. But when an offense is averaging 40+ ppg, you believe. Trent Edwards is a legitimate passer who doesnt get picked often. USC will score alot of points here, but Im not so sure the defense can keep the Teevens offense out of the end zone less than three times. A late score could decide this spread. (USC 31, STANFORD 28)

Games of Sept 18th, 2004: College Picks

2004-09-17T17:11:00.000-07:00

Id love to break down where I went wrong in Week 1, but no time, really. I will say that a lack of internet service last week kept me from letting you all know that I had Notre Dame to cover and Indiana too. Your loss....on to the picks!

***** 5 Star Picks

West Virginia (-6) v. Maryland: Alot of people are talking up a Maryland team that barely escaped against Northern Illinois two weeks ago. West Virginia is loaded, and KJ Harris is going to play. Rasheed Marshall is on fire right now. Mountaineers in a romp.

Syracuse (+3) v. Cincinnati: The demise of the Cuse is greatly overrated. In a home game against the Bearcats, Pasqualoni will get it done. There's no place like Dome.

Wisconsin/Arizona UNDER 40: This is too easy. Anthony Davis is hobbled, Arizona has a Mike Stoops defense, and the Wildcats couldn't score in 3 plays if you pulled the defense off the field. 3-0 sounds about right here.

Notre Dame (-3) @ Michigan State: MSU is terrible, losing to a Rutgers team that lost at home to New Hampshire. The Domers have better athletes, and will be very physical with the young Spartans. The Irish could win by two touchdowns here.

Minnesota (-3.5) @ Colorado State: This number vexes me. The Gophers are the second leading rushing team in the nation, going against a team that has given up 250 and 325 yards rushing in its first two games. The only problem the Gophers face is WR D. Anderson who has caught 300 yards worth of balls in two games.

**** 4 Star Picks:

Iowa State (-3) v. No. Illinois: Iowa State gave Iowa a real run, and had a chance to win that game. The QB situation seems to be settled in Ames, and the defense is strong. 3 is hardly a large enough number to even think about taking No. Ill on the road.

*** 3 Star Picks:

UAB (+23.5) @ Florida State: Chris Rix sucks. The end. UAB is a very underrated team that returns 80% on both sides of the football. They may not come close to winning, but they should cover.

UNLV (-6) v. Air Force: UNLV may be without their quarterback, but the strength of this team is its running game, and underrated defense. If they can contain the wishbone, led by a new QB, they should be ok. The Rebels are more than 6 points better than Air Force.

** 2 Star Picks:

San Diego State (+20) @ Michigan: I just dont believe in the Wolverines' offense. Henne may be good someday, but today, he stinks. RB D Underwood probably wont play, and without a solid running game, Henne will have trouble getting the passing game on track. Note that SD St is without Freshman AA RB L. Hamilton, but his replacement has been more than adequate.

Auburn PK v. LSU: I hate the LSU QB situation, and this game will be played in the mire. The best running game should prevail here, and Auburn has one of the best in the nation.

Oregon (+28) @ Oklahoma: Here is the thing. Oregon lost to Indiana, but outgained them by about a 3:1 margin. Oklahoma couldn't cover at home against Bowling Green. My thought is that if Oregon can keep from having 7 turnovers again (yipes!) they can keep this game within 4 touchdowns. A very sleepy pick.

TCU (+5.5) @ Texas Tech: Expect about 100 pts in this game. TCU has a great running game, and a very underrated passing game. Tech will move the ball through the air, but not like they did last season. TCU should win this game outright.

Arizona State (-1) v. Iowa: Just note that the Sun Devils are actually favored in this game. The Iowa defense is spectacular, but if ASU can put together any semblence of a running game, as they did last week against NW, they should be able to air it out against the Iowa secondary.

* 1 Lousy Star Picks:

La Tech (+30.5) @ Miami (FL): Call it a hunch. I think Berlin sucks. And, the La Tech RB has gone for 250 yards in each of his first two games. If La Tech can control the ball on the ground for a little while, they can at least keep the score respectable.

Picks, Week 1, Vol. I

2004-09-03T13:21:00.000-07:00

Picks for the weekend of 9/4 - 9/5
**Lines are the opening vegas lines as provided be www.scoresandodds.com**

Rutgers (+7) vs. Michigan State: Rutgers is an improved team playing at home against a Michigan State team with a new quarterback and an extremely young secondary. Rutgers may win this game outright, but should stay within a touchdown. Rutgers****

Virginia (-16) @ Temple: Temple is quite possible the worst team left in the Big East. Coming off a 4-7 campaign, they will only get worse this season. A new quarterback in Virginia creates a question mark, however, three years of Al Groh's system and the running of Wali Lundy make the Cavs clear cut favorites. Virginia****

Clemson (-12.5) v. Wake Forest: Wake had a nice run a couple years ago, and put a .500 ball club on the field. While they may remain competitive this season, Clemson is a potential break out team. Tommy Bowden's defense will remain stout despite the loss of Donnell Washington, and QB Charlie Whitehurst will be the difference maker in this game. Clemson***

Michigan (-15) v. Miami (OH): Miaimi is a prerennial MAC powerhouse, and should give Michigan a slight scare following a 41-0 opening night win. However, Michigan is a title contender with the deepest receiving corps in the nation, and an excellent defense. Watch Soph QB Matt Gutierrez in this game, as he will be a breakout player this season. Michigan**

Akron (+15) @ Penn State: Call it a hunch. Akron scores a lot of points, but they give up a ton too. They aren't good enough to beat PSU, but the passing of small school wunderkind Charlie Frye will be enough to keep them within two touchdowns. If there is an over-under, that is the preferred play. Akron*

Vanderbilt (+5.5) v. South Carolina: If you were asking Lou Holtz, he would tell you that Vandy is the greatest team since the late 80's Hurricanes. He is apt to overhype his opponent. However, Vandy will be much improved while South Carolina is rebuilding. Talent remains, but the players on the Gamecocks are not nearly as seasoned as the Commodores. Look for a low scoring, tight game. Vanderbilt**

California (-12.5) @ Air Force: The fact that this is a road game for the Bears is the only matter of concern here. Air Force runs an effective wishbone offense that can confuse even the best defenses. If the Bears get sloppy, Air Force could easily put 28 on them. However, the right arm of Aaron Rogers will proved the potent Cal offense with at least 42 points against the undersized, undermanned Air Force defense. California***

Oklahoma (-33) v. Bowling Green: Give me this game last year, and I would ride the arm of Josh Harris to a cover. However, this isn't the same BG team, and Oklahoma is as fast and explosive as ever. The only question is whether the Sooners will cover before the subs come int to play. Adrian Peterson's coming out party should be a blow out. Oklahoma****

Colorado State (+6) @ Colorado: I don't need to go on and on about the problems at Colorado. For all the off the field problems, the Buffs equally lack on the field. The Rams will trot out a potent passing offense with the top returning reciever in the conference. Add to that Colorado transfer and former Parade All American Marcus Houston, and you have the makings of an upset. Beware the big play ability of Buffs RB Bobby Purify. Colorado State***

Notre Dame (-4.5) @ BYU: The name BYU congers up visions of explosive passing games running the score into the 50's. Those days are gone. BYU hasn't suited up a quality signal caller since Brandon Domann, and even that is pushing it. Notre Dame isn't the Fighting Irish of old, but QB Brady Quinn is a year older and RB Ryan Grant is a more than capable fill in for the departed Julius Jones. Notre Dame will win ugly, but cover nonetheless. Notre Dame***

UCLA (-2.5) v. Oklahoma State: Recent action has moved the line towards a pick em, and Im not sure why. While UCLA is not the dominant force it has been in the past, they still boast a potent combo in QB Drew Olson and potential All American WR Craig Bragg. After losing Tatum Bell, Josh Fields, and Rashaun Woods, I am not sure how Ok St can expect to compete. UCLA****

Navy (-6.5) v. Duke: Duke stinks. That is all you need to know. And the Navy option, run adeptly by QB Craig Candeto is exceptional. After a surprising campaign last year and a bowl berth, the Midshipmen will handle easily one of the worst teams in the country. Navy****

Memphis (+3.5) @ Mississippi: The fact that this is a road game is the only explanation for the spread. While the Sylvester Croom hiring is a great one for the SEC, it won't make up for the losses of Eli Manning and Chris Collins. The defense returns decent, but DeAngelo Williams and QB Danny Wimprine will be too much. The Tiger offense should be enough to win this game, given the deficiancies on the Mississippi offense. Memphis*

LSU (-18) v. Oregon State: Following the loss of Steven Jackson, Oregon State will not be the offensive force it was. Couple that with the graduation of WR James Newsom, and QB Derek Anderson will have his hands full fighting against the LSU alone. The loss of Matt Mauck will not be so bad for the Tigers, who bring in QB Marcus Randall to replace him. Randall is seasoned, has experience, and will have the best freshman receivers to throw to in the country. LSU***

Marshall (-14) v. Troy State: The Thundering Herd is a powerhouse, year in and year out. This year is no different as QB S. Hill keeps the tradition of exceptional signal callers going. Losing Darius Watts will hurt, but Troy State is a limited Div 1-A newcomer and should find the Marshall home field less then hospitable. Mashall*****

Louisville (-8) v. Kentucky: Behind the dynamic duo of Michael Bush and Eric Shelton, Lousiville will put an explosive offense on the field. The Cardinals are not as strong as they once were, but Kentucky is absolutely atrocious, and should find it difficult to keep up with the Cards without QB Jared Lorenzen who was last seen eating his way out of the Giants camp. Louisville****

Intro

2004-09-03T13:12:00.000-07:00

Gonna try something a little new. Since I can't afford to gamble, here you will find all you need to know about my picks for the week. As football season approaches, many ask for my latest thoughts on the week's games. Now, for no charge to you whatsoever, you will receive my weekly picks. Worth their weight in gold, I offer them to you, the public, at no personal gain to myself. If you disagree with any of these picks, I don't care. Bet the opposite. I will track my performance over the course of the season. Remember, all picks are against the spread.

Note: Games will be given a Star Rating, from 1 to 5. A 5 star game indicates that I feel very strongly about the pick. As the stars decrease, so does my suredness.

-Worm